Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Macroeconomics  |  January 07, 2013 09:54:41

2013: In the Eurozone recession, growth in the U.S.

The U.S. in 2013 to avoid recession. For the euro area this is not true. The first half of the year, it will be located, will at best stagnate. Based on the selected indicators that analysts say

The U.S. economy is improving fiscal cliff despite

In the United States one of the most accurate indicators of recession forecasts national activity index of the Chicago Fed. If the value is below -0.7, and the economy is already in recession. For October already teetering at -0.64, while the latest data for November, sent the index to the level of +0.10.   The value of three-month moving average climbed to -0.20 which is significant distance from the threshold of recession. "In retrospect, a better-than-expected numbers from China and stabilization in the Eurozone should definitely positive effect on the U.S. economy through an increase in orders and exports, so I would expect that from Activity Index remains well short of the threshold of recession throughout 2013." Says analyst Saxo Bank, Peter Garnry, adding that "the U.S. economy is now growing at a slower pace than expected, but the pace will accelerate, which is good news for the new year."

Eurozone continues to decline and improvement is very slow

With the euro area but it does not look so good. The December business cycle indicator Eurocoin, published by the Central Bank of Italy has improved only slightly to -0.27 from -0.29, indicating that economic activity Eurozone is still in negative territory. It is positive that the situation is gradually improving. "If the index does not improve dramatically in the quarter, then it is very likely that the eurozone will be in recession or will not grow in the first half of 2013.The latest data on the economy of the euro area show that the governor of the European Central Bank is still room to pursue its goal of releasing the ECB's policies and implementing short-term inflation. Can serve as an indicator view on M3 money supply figures, which show that the money supply increased by 3.8%. "Adds Garnry.

The U.S. economy is thus improves despite fears of a fiscal cliff and improving real estate market can compensate for failure in government spending in 2013. Probability of a U.S. recession is at this moment very low.The eurozone is still in decline and improve economic activity is very slow.  

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2013: V eurozóně recese, v USA růst

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