TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  January 08, 2013 13:14:42

Market vyčkávacom again in vogue. How is waiting?


iPoint.cz In the market after the turn of hektickom see tentative trade to the side and wait. It's best to be visible on the U.S. promotions. Same thing it does not have the euro, which despite growth stocks for the new year their profits neudržalo and fell to about 250 pip within two days. Precious metals have refused additional bed-and-trade in a narrow band. Oil is trying to overcome the downward trend, but so far have not found a reason for it. How is thus awaiting?

Let's start from the end. Oil to end the year properly used and administration that drew producers 11 12 millionbarrels of oil per week (which is the extreme value and the biggest drop in stocks over the past 12 years, at least) it got to the level of 93.60 (WTI). These involve but rather on the frontloading and tax optimization by companies and not solidly higher demand. Fundamental equilibrium is still on the side Medveďová rekordným paces Rising oil production in the U.S. (16% year on year) and stagnant consumption causes high growth stocks (still 10% year on year), which is inadequately compensated klesajúcim importing crude oil to the U.S.. Neither export fuels prosecute ventilate surpluses and gasoline inventories are growing already after 6 weeks apart, the latter are already well up year on year, that is not a seasonal blip. Today, however, new data will be published inventories (even now foresee growth) and the EIA report mainly rope and zemnom gas.Bulls hope that the veil could land on growth. But who will not come any problem in the Gulf, oil is not very wherefore rise.

Precious metals are awaiting the ECB meeting. Have prehltli and the good data from the U.S. labor market, and, behold, increasingly, talk about the Fed's stimulus nejakom constraints (from a speech to the deed, however, may be far). Governor Draghi has long not say anything surprising and ECB are likely to enjoy their uspávania market (euro achieved a nine-month highs, yields of Spanish and Italian debt are on minimách of multiannual) and will not want to spoil it. Therefore, it can be expected that the rate will not change, and it will speak to the thing spoken, but do not change course. The eurozone is in recession and debt is rising, every day of calm in the markets is a good day for the ECB and Brussels.IMF already knows that the large šrkty crisis worsened flax and the PIIGS countries will soon resemble the pressure (social) caldron, with angry and frustrated youth.

In the euro area will stay. First, this year's election (and nerátame Czech presidential) will have a few weeks in Italy. Market monitors, what chance would have Berslusconiho Party whose government would not been a positive one for the country, whether with the Berslusconim premiérskom chair or without. Monti will need the support stredoľavého democratic grouping headed by Bersanim, which is a former coalition partner, so the situation would not have to develop bad. A Italian yields Minerals, which is good.

Merkel meet today will go well with the Greek prime minister Samarasom on which will also present German Finance Minister Schäuble and Eurocrats Rehn. It is not known topic of negotiations, but Samaras to journalists before the meeting claimed that Greece fulfills all conditions. So let us hope that the problem will not be with the team. Backgrounder is planned, so that they can rely only on diffusion and observations ojedinělé interested.

A leap across the ocean. In the U.S., after the close of last week hektickom breathing, now gets off earnings season, which will be in the spotlight, do not start again until the negotiations on resolving debt-crisis in the U.S. (the end of February must find a solution).And that may be currently a stand for optimism, because postponing fiscal cliff itself can not be a reason to whatever euphoria tobôž not on the level of 5-yearly spikes in actions (good data from the end of last week very moved for shares). Last quarter (3Q2012), we saw the second interannual drop in profits for himself and even higher than in 2Q, up to 6%. You are expected interannual growth of 3%. If we take 12-month data and compare year on year and the last quarter we have seen a decrease -1%, now is expected to increase by 0.17%. Accordingly, we may retain the U.S. to shares inch, namely optimism are kept alive. Already today the Alcoa, next week the season rozbieha fullest.

Shares just surpass the September peak level thus demonstrating the growth trend. Another objective is the level of 1470, the first slide 1448th

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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