Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 09, 2013 11:10:06

Comments for inflation - core inflation is again increasing, the overall growth rate decreases


The consumer price index in December is expected to increase by 0.1 percent. Pushed upward price level zdražující food, there were reversed another cheaper petrol and diesel and seasonal discount apparel and footwear. Annual inflation fell to 2.4 percent from November's 2.7 percent and reached its lowest level since the end of 2011. The average inflation rate for last year was 3.3 percent, in 2011 was 1.9 percent.

To inflation again spoke strongly rising prices of food. Their prices are rising for four months in a row. In December rose by 1.4 percent. Last year's poor harvest is reflected in the rising prices of cereals and bakery products. To do this, add a seasonal increase in prices of potatoes, vegetables and fruits.

The continued decline in oil prices extended the downward trend in fuel prices. Natural 95 petrol became cheaper by almost crown, ie 2.6 per cent, the price of oil fell by 60 cents, ie 1.6 percent.

Traditionally, the December winter sales begin to clothing and footwear. This time brought a decline in prices of these products by 1.1 percent. And it seems to have set in motion the competition in the area of ??mobile operators. Prices for these services in December fell by 0.6 percent. Mobile phones became cheaper by 0.9 percent. The annual decline in prices in telecommunications and postal services has widened to 5.6 percent.

From an analytical perspective, the key piece of information monetary policy decrease inflation from 1.5 to 1.2 percent, making this indicator further away from CNB's inflation target (2 percent). Core inflation (excluding taxes, administered prices and volatile food prices and fuel prices) fell from minus 0.5 percent to minus 0.8 percent.Czech economy is by this measure for three and a half years in deflation, which also began to deepen again. This implies a clear conclusion: the central bank should loosen monetary conditions. Given that interest rates have fallen to virtually zero, CNB last remaining strength - foreign exchange interventions.

This year, inflation should fluctuate close to 2 percent.  

David Marek, Patria Finance

A similar picture, namely the growth of food and energy prices and a decline in electronics and clothing, will offer this year, with the difference that the annual aggregate prices rise less last year. Negative pressure on household incomes, however, will persist.

Price growth slowed at the end of the year, while in December, the annual inflation rate was 2.4%. Compared to November was up by 0.1%. Neither drop dynamics in the last months of last year, but failed to reverse the total amount of increase in consumer prices for the year 2012, when the average inflation rate was 3.3%.

Given the minimal wage growth and increasing unemployment and higher prices had a negative impact on household consumption. The situation is even worse that the more expensive especially in the case of the necessary items like food and energy, although in some cases there was also a double-digit price growth (eg water). In contrast, prices for non-essential goods stagnated and in some cases even decreased (eg clothing and footwear). A similar picture, namely the growth of food and energy prices and a decline in electronics and clothing, will offer this year, with the difference that the annual aggregate prices rise less last year. Negative pressure on household incomes, however, will persist.

Miroslav Novak
Analyst AKCENTA CZ

Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0


Last news from the section Macroeconomics:

St 16:55  Benzín už o prázdninách nezdraží, ropa míří dolů Jiří Zendulka (Kurzy.cz)
St   8:49  Středeční obchodní seance 18. 7. 2018 STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
Út 15:40  Teď není ten správný čas na letní prázdniny! STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)

Read also:

January 13, 2018ČR - jádrová inflace prudce zpomaluje (Komentář) Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)

Komentáře k inflaci - jádrová inflace se opět prohlubuje, celkové tempo růstu klesá

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.


Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze
Kurzy.cz - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2018

Kurzy.cz, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688