Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  January 09, 2013 16:54:00

On Wednesday, the koruna against the euro has not changed much


Trading on the crown was in the middle of a relatively peaceful. Rate CZK / EUR misalign the band from 25.456 to 25.565, the tendency was evident up or down. In contrast, the surrounding currency in the region strengthened when he attributed the Hungarian forint 0.6% and 0.5% Polish zloty. Positive mood then prevailing in other risky assets, such as the European shares attributed to the fourth hour of around 0.6%. Crown to strengthen and prevent anti-inflation data from the Czech economy as the markets are concerned of possible interventions by the central bank. CNB likely to enter the market directly, of course, increases with the more risk of deflationary risks (just deflation, the central bank will try to avoid at all costs).
Today we saw the December data on domestic inflation and the unemployment rate. Consumer price inflation declined further in December from 2.7% y / y in November to 2.4%, which was in line with market and our estimate. Deviation of actual inflation from the CNB forecast has been increased from -0.3 percentage points in November to -0.4 percentage points in December, which is already relatively strong deviation. Inflation for the central bank is not a problem, attention CNB rather will focus on deflationary risks. If significant, the central bank will definitely resort to direct foreign exchange interventions. For now, inflation expectations of economic agents do not show the possibility of deflation. The unemployment rate climbed to the end of December, in line with our expectations at 9.4% from November's 8.7%.The number of people out of work during the last month of last year increased by nearly 37,000 to more than 545,000. This makes it the highest number of people out of work since March 2011. The labor market situation will worsen this year. Czech economy in the past year are in a recession and will fight with her for at least the first half of this year. Expected moderate recovery in economic activity in the second half of the year will be too weak to turn the negative trends on the labor market. Under the new methodology, we expect the unemployment rate at the end of this year, around 8.4% (according to the old methodology, the unemployment rate exceeded 10%).
Consumer inflation
The main event was the regional meeting on Wednesday, the Polish central bank in line with expectationsreduced its main policy rate by 25 bps to 4.0%. According to the Governor Belka can not exclude another rate cut (but not sure), if the new data confirm the continued economic slowdown and limited inflationary pressures. So far data confirm a significant economic slowdown. If in February there is a rate cut will then be followed by a pause.
Tomorrow in the region confess any interesting data from the domestic environment this week we still await retail sales for November, which will be published on Friday.
Czech swap curve fell in the middle at its longer end of one bp in the same direction as the moving euro curve.Ministry of Finance in Wednesday's auction offered two bonds for a total of 5-9 billion CZK (new bond with a fixed coupon of 1.50% and maturing in 2019 and with a variable coupon bond maturing in 2017). Demand reached CZK 11.0 billion in the first bond and CZK 7 billion for the second bond. The Ministry has sold bonds worth 5 billion and CZK 3.2 billion in the first and second bond. The average yield on a bond with a fixed coupon of 1.492% reached. Auction Result can be considered successful due to the very good demand.


Author: Jiri Skop

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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