Research (Česká spořitelna)
Macroeconomics  |  January 10, 2013 10:25:09

Germany - Industry in November grew by 0.2%

German industrial production in November by 0.2% m / m increase, which looks quite ok. But it is important to note that this figure is quite volatile, so rather look at 3M average m / m temp. There already is a glory for 09/12-11/12 average was 1% m / m If the miracle does not improve in December so it looks in 4Q12 to recession in Germany. December data for PMI was not fame, IFO was better, but very weak to compensate for October and November, it will not be enough - rather it indicates a stabilization of the situation in 1Q13. In 4Q12 and industry drops by about 2.5-3% q / q, which will deterioration after nearly a percentage growth in 3Q12 and the weakest performance since the crisis in the 2009th

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