Markets  |  January 10, 2013 14:03:23

Shopping spree at dlhopisoch peripherals Today is the morning positive mood in the markets, which had already begun publishing in the night to give the Chinese trade balance. This ended in December for vyššom surplus mainly on the basis of higher exports, which has risen year on year by 14% vs. expectations 5%. Already this morning so we had a positive response to the commodity currencies (AUD mainly) and also on American promotions or rope. While we thought that today's headlinom will backgrounder ECB governor Draghi, in fact, we have probably the main event in a row.

Today we had seen unexpectedly strong demand for Spanish and Italian bond auction. Yields were substantially lower and more forward the bond, as was the plan. Yields of Italian and Spanish debt at the end are falling short by 11 12%, the Italian nearing to an annual 3-minimae, Spanish to an annual 2-minimae. This is probably nobody nečakal (have even talked about the potential problem due to the high volume of Spanish auctions) and will soon be possible to find out what Primal banks and ancillary rapidly buying up debt.

We may speculate on the words Chancellor Merkel that Germany is losing competitiveness at the expense of the periphery. Capital inflows is increasing real estate prices and the cost of labor of Germany. The credit rating agency S & P even said that the crisis in the euro area will soon be averted respectively., We have the worst behind.Because politicians laid the foundation stone solution.

Well, well down such words should be read, but where will the little self-honest, we know that this is not true. The economy is in recession, the IMF already knows that the debt to a lower nepreškrtáme in fact, no one knows what should be do next. I mean they know it all, but nobody wants to do it. Speaking of nutnom reductions standard of living, because she is above the current ratio (a long-kept growing mountain). But the problem is that the situation is somewhat complicated. It is not only possible to reduce the standard of living across the board. Influential and wealthy population groups, which came to the property to his various pololegálnymi (or equal illegal) ways through the public sector or the policy of this property, of course, does not want to give up. Neither let him taxed on it after all we have tax havens.For example, Cyprus so you are now requesting assistance. This rich and influential group does not need to create anything, just that redistributes respectively. can capitalize annuity through a lobby or Holes in the laws. And let him take any action, they already know how to have vykľučkovať. Then we have the middle layer, which is made up of smaller entrepreneurs, or people who are trying to make more money by the fact that they work more. These are the most overcast consolidating, which brings higher taxes and blbú mood of consumers who do not buy so much as how much you had. Because it is not certain whose work will have even tomorrow. This layer gradually saps. And then we have the lowest layer, which wants to survive and it is becoming increasingly frustrated by what is happening. Arrives at work on self-esteem (and unable to feed their family) and also confidence in the system.Do this a cocktail pripočítajme high and rising unemployment among young people (in the PIIGS countries 30-60% under the age of 25 years) and we have a very dangerous cocktail. Yes, probably in the next time somebody nezbankrotuje, but that does not mean that the problems exiting. The team that we have waited neodišli problems. They wait and they will be larger, because still not resolved. A few years ago, spoke that the financial crisis is over and will be well. Lenz economic crisis came and now owe. Next stage of the crisis of society, when tensions will grow between those who have and those who would also like to have.

About 14:30 in front of the camera should predstúpiť ECB governor Draghi, who will try to keep the markets as long as possible in the belief that everything is in order and the ECB is ready.That we have heard and therefore, traders will focus on whether there are still inside the ECB downward pressure on rates (as it was last indicated.) Otherwise, we can expect anchored inflationary expectations, a weak economy with risk for both overflow and overlook the possible improvement in the second half of the 2013th If anything changes from this, the euro it will respond quickly.

The American promotions, we see an additional day holding, as the first slide is a strong level 200MA which is also slide 2-month short-term trend at the 1415th How to be essential RESISTANCE level is 1470, which I can no longer overcome the shares since the autumn. About fiškálnom reef while the U.S. does not speak, but the market does not perceive it badly, because we have a couple of weeks time. It's the end of January, however, the topic will be No.1 again. Therefore, the Bulls will want GROWTH enjoy a party as long as possible. While we can.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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