Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  January 10, 2013 16:38:00

Crown on Thursday finally without significant changes

Czech koruna weakened further this morning from morning levels around 25.60 CZK / EUR up to 25,755 (the highest interbank trade according to Reuters). In the afternoon, however, most of its losses erased. Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint weakened throughout the day and corrected its gains from the previous day. Losers among regional currencies, the Hungarian forint, which around the 16th hours lost by even 0.9% (Polish zloty then 0.4%). No data was published in the region, but tomorrow we will see retail sales in the domestic economy. For CNB data released recently clearly disinflation, which increases the risk of direct intervention by the central bank. On Wednesday night, it reminded CNB Governor M. Singer.However, the timing of direct intervention is quite uncertain, in our opinion, will mainly depend on whether they appear real threat of deflation. For now, the central bankers have access only to verbal interventions that enough for now to be weaker koruna traded at levels around 25.50 CZK / EUR.
Czech retail sales should rise in November by 1.7% m / m (SA, WDA) with sales outside the automotive sector (last month's sales dropped significantly). Year-on would then total sales to drop by 0.5% y / y (Bloomberg consensus 0.0%), after adjustment for the different number of working days, even by 2.2%. Consumer spending was limited last year drop in real wages, employment and fiscal consolidation.This year, the situation is similar, though spending will again limit the ongoing fiscal consolidation and poor situation on the labor market. Over the past year, sales have on average lower by almost 1.0%, we expect a similar result this year.
Czech swap curve rose on Thursday after its entire length, mostly at the long end. (Shorter end about 2 bb and longer by 4 bp). Czech swaps followed developments in the euro counterparts, which rose even more.

Author: Jiri Skop

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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