Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 11, 2013 11:40:28

Comments retail - wages grow, spending down, but the season is not lost yet

Before Christmas in shops not spend too much. Retail sales in November fell month on month by 0.6 percent. In comparison with the previous year decreased by 1.8 percent, after taking into account differences in the number of working days, even by 3.5 percent. Revenues are falling in the vast majority of goods. This information confirms the continued downturn in domestic demand and suggest that GDP in the 4th quarter again bring a positive result.

The overall result affected by the drop in sales and repairs of cars by 3.0 percent. Evidence of the negative result was the November decline in new vehicle registrations (passenger and light commercial vehicles) by 10 percent and used cars by 8 percent. The December statistics registrations is even worse, and suggest further drop in sales from the sale of cars.

Also saves on petrol and diesel (-2.9 percent) and household equipment (-5.5 percent). One of the few positive exceptions in retail sales are growing at computers and phones (+6.3 percent). At the same time continues the growing trend of purchases over the internet (+6.0 percent). Households are trying to save money and internet in addition to offering convenience, comfort lowest prices.

The main cause of declining household demand and sales in stores is rising unemployment and a decline in real wages. Both factors lead to the fact that the third quarter gross disposable household income actually declined by 1.4 percent. Greater caution while increasing gross domestic savings rate. For the first three quarters of this year is 11.3 percent, reaching the same level as in the recession in 2009.

Over the past year I expect a decline in retail sales of 1.1 percent. Due to the continuing recession is a negative trend this year is likely to continue.

David Marek, Patria Finance

Retail sales in November declined in constant prices by 1.8%. Adjusted for working days fell by as much as 3.5%. Attribute so another negative notch on his butt. Its large share of that car sales had to withdraw due to the volume of the entire result still below retail. Car sales dropped by 2.9%, as demand in recent months decreased significantly. While in 2011, sales of car sales more than basically matching the pace last year for the first eleven months declining by 1.3%. Demand for cars is not from consumers or from business customers. Firms due to declining industry and problems in construction and save to your fleet do not want to invest too much.

Problems retail but not only in car sales. I declined remaining stores in November it was 1.3%. Decline in November went across the industry and find a growing area is almost impossible. About the only positive news is worthy sales of computers and internet shops. Computers and smart phones are selling much better this time and sales grew by 6.3%. Very similar to what were the e-shops, in comparison with the result of the October (+19.5%), but it is rather disappointing.

Negative messages outweigh the good ones. Continued decline in sales of food, this one fell by 0.7%, but this is one of the better results in 2012. Although the drop in November decreased, but even food sales decline for more than a year and a half. Sales of home furnishings such as furniture and electronics, were in 2012 literally like a roller coaster.In November, sales fell by 1.8%, while in October grew by 3%.

The retail sales in November shows that consumers are still putting off Christmas shopping. In December season would already be reflected fully and revenues should go to positive numbers. Yet comparative basis with last year is not small, and therefore achieve better results is not entirely easy. In addition, two-thirds of people declare that they are waiting for post-Christmas discounts, therefore, sales have noticeably moved from the Christmas period until January.

Ing. Michal Kozub
Analyst, Home Credit as

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