Rastislav Trecák (G&S SOLUTIONS)
Investor's window  |  January 14, 2013 08:51:55

Illusion or reality - what will win in 2013

We now invest in financial derivatives, or rather to secure the acquisition of real physical assets? They are based on today's financial markets on the real economy, or you begin to live their own lives? Even when the real economy is dying, we have again nice returns in the equity markets, the bond market is growing as the water and Unemployment also. Let's look at it a little differently, no mathematical model, no formulas, charts, technical analysis, a little bit easier.

In December, we survived the end of the world, everything is fine. Human civilization will be here a little longer. Although the terms of each individual at least once in their life their own end of the world we live eventually. Arranged so that nature and there's nothing you can do.Some things we can not influence even if we sometimes fail.

For example, we are trying to influence the economy. Experts are great at it as central bankers. Their friends all politicians claim that central banks are independent and highly professional institution. Perhaps it is so in times of economic prosperity, in times of crisis, the independence of central banks and bankers somehow forgets must dance as the prime minister or president who whistles (or more owners of large corporations whistle?).

And where central bankers occurred? Either come from academia and experts are studying the type of the most prestigious universities, Harvard and Cambridge or are former top executives of private commercial banks (egMario Draghi = Goldman Sachs). And these former managers are really savvy to help an old friend. Nicely arrange to get fat bonuses from the time of financial bubbles leave the managers and owners of bank losses and let the taxpayers pay. And yet they call "rescue packages", because if the big banks by the motto "to big to fail" did not save the world would end. Chětl would be the owner of a large bank. Risk-free business would sting.

In 70-ies of the last century began again forced bankers in political circles formed the idea for the accumulation of wealth in such a way that it will print money without restraint, without something real coverage (ideally gold)and we will be richer (some even elect to meet). And started another now but worldwide experiment with fiat money, which is slowly coming to a climax, unfortunately it will not be a happy ending, but the tragedy.

Grand Illusion infinite growth into the stratosphere, however, quite often stumbled, such as the late 70's, then in 1987 there was a huge crash in the stock market, then the last dot.com bubble and the housing bubble. A cure for stuttering what happened? Why, printing money.

By major theorists of economics freedom (FVHayek, M. Rothbard) just printing (creating) no fiat money causes economic cycles.First, the illusion of wealth and prosperity, and then fall back to reality, where the market alone trying to get the normal path of sustainable growth and not booms arising from monetary inflation. The reality unfortunately leave us after the bubble burst and the first we have experienced a fall and a recession that all poorly allocated capital funds over into other realokovaly nebublinových, usually completely new technology or energy trends and challenges. Today was a reality reflected in the functioning of the real economy, which is trying to correct bubbles. But central bankers printing fiat money they want to outwit reality, but they are doing it just for financial, virtual markets. When do about it last? It is possible that financial markets can exist without the real economy? Certainly not!

Why do we need so many Property when one does not live in them, why do we need so many cars on the old, unsustainable drive, we have a junkyard full of bazaars, why do we produce so much food, though, according to the latest statistics ( IMechE ) 30-50% end up on the scrap heap? When we have enough money, start slowly and wasting zakrňovat. Only if you still have money as well, or every year, just a little more, we strive to improve our lives and to give us the same amount of medium of exchange remained valid for more products and services, we strive to improve our productivity.

At what stage we are about now? We are in the process of re-restoring the real economy and we start the next stage of prosperity? We believe experts from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and other large financial institutions that 2013 will be a year already calm and gradual recovery of growth?

Nope do not think so and already the beginning of me that just confirms. We've got several threats that may affect the illusion of growth for the global economy in a very negative:

- Fiscal cliff in the U.S. - the threat of recession
- The budget ceiling in the U.S. - the threat of bankruptcy
- Bank oj printing yen and Japan - the threat of increased inflation disproportionately
- Record unemployment in the EU - the threat of further slowdown in the real economy in the EU
- CAC (Collective Action Clause) - the threat that the newly issued government bonds in the euro area may not be fully repaid

In my opinion, we are in the eye of the storm in which we got in 2008 and which is still relative peace and quiet. Meanwhile, the hurricane is intensifying and a moment about we start getting out. It'll be a nice blast because that country has not experienced a hurricane.

The illusion of wealth that is allocated in virtual or paper assets can be from one day to evaporate, the Exchange may collapse because they run out of fuel (uncovered coins) or inflation will rise to neúnostou border.More and more large, medium and small investors, but most countries (except EU and the U.S.) are starting to provide more problems with inflation or literally collapse USD currency system. On the chart below you can see that the official sector (central banks and other official institutions) after 2008 changes direction and begins to buy gold as a hedge against erosion of fiat currencies as risk-free as well as a reserve asset in the future. In 2012, the trend continues and net official sector gold purchases exceeds its sales by about 500 tons.

Source: WGC - World Gold Council

What will eventually happen with the global and virtual real (financial) economy in 2013 will soon find out. We should be but here in the Czech Republic to focus more on securing the allocation of available funds into commodity money (gold and silver) and land, because the world around us, it makes for a longer period of time. Invest in conventional financial instruments, type of shares or bonds, although in the short term may bring some improvements, but it will be more and more adrenaline sport. Just as central banks raise key interest rates and the bond market collapses. When the print stop, take it the stock market.

Man succumbs to the illusion very quickly and very hard to get out of this illusion. Current unprecedented separation of the real economy from financial markets suggests to us that something is wrong. Financial markets (tail) begin Wag the Dog (real economy), which means that the world is not the same as in the last century, and hence we should also behave. It is better to at least partially cover and secure in the future allocation of their savings in physical assets than sorry as Greek pensioners or clients investment bank Lehman Brothers, who believed in the impossibility of crash State / giant investment bank.

Ing. Rastislav Trecák

vystudoval Univerzitu Mateja Bela v Banské Bystrici. Po škole pracoval jako obchodní manažer v petrolejářské branži a mimo jiné zabezpečoval i finanční hedging ropných produktů. Od roku 2010 začal působit jako poradce a zprostředkovatel služeb spojených s finančním zabezpečením fyzických obchodů s komoditami a od roku 2012, kdy založil společnost G&S Solutions, se věnuje informačně-edukační a obchodní činnosti v oblasti investic a spoření.

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G&S Solutions je mladá obchodní společnost poskytující informačně-obchodní služby založené primárně na informování svých klientů z pohledu svobodné ekonomie a sekundárně na prodeji v současnosti ideálních investičních aktiv, zlata a stříbra. Finanční poradci, banky nebo investiční fondy mnohdy zamlčují nebo vysvětlují příčiny současného problému pouze v zanedbatelné míře, proto se společnost G&S Solutions zaměřuje na:

  • informování svých klientů, vysvětlování a navrhování řešení ochrany před současnou nejistou finanční a ekonomickou situací,
  • zabezpečení fyzických komoditních peněz, zlata a stříbra, pro své klienty za konkurenční ceny ,
  • napomáhání prohlubování relevantních znalostí současného finančního systému a tím ochranu finanční svobody svých klientů do budoucna prostřednictvím seminářů, přednášek a debat s významnými ekonomickými experty z České republiky, ale i ze zahraničí.

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