Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  January 14, 2013 15:57:00

Crown to home week slightly stronger

Czech crown, at the beginning of the week has flourished. Against the common European currency during today's trading day attributed more than half a percent. While the first morning quotes were located almost at the level of 25.70 CZK / EUR exchange rate fell during the morning up to 25.55 CZK / EUR. Subsequently stabilized just below 25.60 CZK / EUR.

Conversely surrounding regional currencies today lost - the Polish zloty by about half a percent and the Hungarian forint by more than three-quarters percent in the morning when he attacked the weakest level in seven months. The Polish zloty has responded to verbal intervention Vice Piechocinskiho. Sterling would weaken him by six percent to make Polish exports competitive.The Hungarian forint then suffers from fears that the central bank will become even more dependent on the government of Prime Minister Orbán, after the governor and two other members of the Board expires on the 20th March mandate.

Tomorrow will bring home the December statistics of domestic development of industrial and agricultural producers. Although normally not the data that financial markets would react, in light of the threat of intervention to weight these indicators increases. Any number indicating the threat of deflationary pressures only increase sensitivity to unfavorable crown indicators of the real economy. And here we see some risk. Our estimate is expected to decline December industrial producer prices by 0.1% m / m, while the market consensus points to the contrary, the rise of 0.1% m / mIn annual terms the market can expect stagnation at November's 1.6% y / y, we expect a deceleration to 1.4% y / y. Deflationary pressures on the contrary, do not worry due to agricultural producer prices, which last year due to poor crops grow.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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