Research (Investicniweb.cz)
World markets  |  January 15, 2013 08:06:00

Correction should start at the latest in February, but maybe in a few days



What will this year for stocks? In my opinion, it is worth remembering what the typical evolution of stock prices in the period after the U.S. presidential election. For this purpose I have created a graph of the average inflation for the last four election season, which I have added a chart of a typical evolution of stock prices from 2000 to 2011.

Development of U.S. indexes since summer 2012 total with developments in the typical presidential election. It is difficult to predict whether it will be so in the coming months, but let's see how it might look.

To illustrate the current prices I used the certificate QQQ ETF, which is synonymous with the Nasdaq 100 index The graph shows the average evolution of green captured after the U.S. elections in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008. The last election held on 4 November 2012, to this date I have applied the evolution of the average curve.

Correction from February to April?

It can be seen that the development before and after the elections now corresponds fairly accurately. If this will continue, waiting for the stock market correction very soon. The positive is the fact that the first year after the election is still quite strong, markets might expect one less summer correction and one more in the fall.

A bigger problem could occur in 2014, the second year after the election, is typically the worst of the cycle.Politicians have at that time at least reason to try to promote capital market, other options are far and mood of people they are apparently still "stolen".

The beginning of the next fall based on the flow chart in half of February to mid-end April.

QQQ (ETF Nasdaq 100)

What are the other reasons for the correction? More of the analysis can be found on the web Investment


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