Czech markets  |  January 17, 2013 18:33:39

The PSE should return to growth / BIG EXPERT - shares: Week from 14 First 2,013


Measured by the PX the domestic market after December solid growth entered the new year almost exploded. PX got to the border points in 1070, where he last was in August 2011. The reason, of course, was also a worldwide positive reaction to "solve" the U.S. fiscal cliff.

In the last few days we have witnessed quite logical and most actually healthy respite. Following could then return to growth. We found several indications. As early as next week on the domestic market scurries earnings season, although most major companies will come up with reports mainly in the second half of February. The results may be used in many current calm titles respectively. confirm the expectation of dividends.Over the last year was for the domestic market exchange rate the main driver of positive ERSTE, this year most likely just return for the payment of dividends. December sales Ukrainian division and now reported amortization of goodwill especially in this direction a negative fact, as the most likely amount of dividends compared to earlier predictions alleviate market. As well as the price is the title of this dividend is now a minor celebrity. More importantly clean balance sheet and operating profitability, which would just be reflected in the future and the growth of net profit, respectively. dividends to earlier levels. Stable, respectively. dividend growth is expected in the second Austrian title - VIG, which also has a significant weight in the PX.

In the coming spring months, however, the main attraction of dividend shares are likely to KB. Maybe even a record profit last year, banks should contribute to a significant increase in the dividend. The market expects 230 CZK / share, however, according to my surprise it was not 250 CZK. KB shares from Wednesday's technically fall below the level of 3900 CZK reached the bottom edge of the growth channel, which can be seen on the title. Support should be the price averages (50 and 100denní) from which the title was the return to growth, and in my thanks to the expected dividend in the coming weeks to deal with last year's peak levels of 4200 CZK.

Due to the decline in the price but actually attractive dividend yield may eventually. offer shares of CEZ. The title, however, with investors negatively affects the situation in the sector, respectively. decline in prices of electricity and emission allowances to new "lows".Ambiguity is of course much more. Question whether such expansion of the Temelín NPP and of course the media discussed Albania. Absolution situation "Klondike" could just as well could partly title "untie the hands".

The last fifth title with a decisive influence on the index, of course, shares of Telefónica O2. The title is trying to bounce back from December 8-year lows. Frequently mentioned concerns about developments in the growing competitive environment are too exaggerated to me. More important will be rather simple result of the auction of frequencies. Lack of clarity about the potential of this year's investment cost is influenced by predictions regarding possible further repurchase of own shares. Again, these unknown absolution, together with the results of a particular view of management's this year and zeroing dividends title may give greater impetus. Personally, I tend to a positive outcome, respectively.reaction when the current known negatives should already have a degree in itself enough exchange rate included.

In technical terms the very PX would just point at the current level of 1,040 points should be supported. Can not be ruled out, of course, fall back to a very strong technical level of 1,000 points. However, in January, according to my development index technically opened the way toward a 1100 points. Support should be just above factors as well as the major firms domestic market, respectively. driving force for the next few weeks to become primarily a vision of dividends.

George Ramakrishnan BH Securities

Expert opinions on the future development of selected stocks on the Czech capital market in the next month and a half, in the week of 14 First 2013th


The estimate for the period from 14 First to 11 Second 2013 (1 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
PHILIP MORRIS CR
^ 30
10840
1
3
0
0
1
PEGAS NONWOVENS
^ 20
502
0
2
3
0
0
COMMERCIAL BANK
^ 20
3,961
1
1
2
1
0
NWR
^ 10
94.6
0
2
2
1
0
CETV
^ 10
112.25
0
2
2
1
0
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
^ 10
325
1
0
3
1
0
UNIPETROL
^ 10
173.8
1
1
1
2
0
ČEZ
^ 10
664.9
1
1
2
0
1
ERSTE BANK GROUP
0
671
1
0
2
2
0
VIG
ˇ -10
990
0
1
2
2
0

The estimate for the period from 14 First to 15 7th 2013 (6 months)

Name
Attractiveness
Price
(Monday)
Definitely
buy
Buy
No
action
Sell
Definitely
sell
PEGAS NONWOVENS
^ ^ 50
502
0
5
0
0
0
NWR
^ ^ 50
94.6
1
3
1
0
0
ERSTE BANK GROUP
^ ^ 50
671
2
1
2
0
0
CETV
^ 30
112.25
0
3
2
0
0
VIG
^ 30
990
0
3
2
0
0
TELEFÓNICA O2 CR
^ 20
325
1
1
2
1
0
UNIPETROL
^ 10
173.8
0
2
2
1
0
ČEZ
ˇ -10
664.9
0
2
1
1
1
COMMERCIAL BANK
ˇ -20
3,961
0
1
2
1
1
PHILIP MORRIS CR
ˇ ˇ -50
10840
0
1
1
0
3

Rating this week performed:

  • George Ramakrishnan - BH Securities
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Dušan Reactive - UniCredit Bank Czech Republic

Statistics deals with ten of the most liquid stocks traded on the PSE. The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts listed. The column "Price" the Monday course selected titles from which to its estimates experts came out. With this value estimates will be after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. The column "Attractiveness" the weighted average number of views and can take values ??from -100 to +100. Number of views "Sell", "Buy", etc. is published in other columns.
Note: Ratings are in the form of non-binding opinions, whether a security would be advisable to buy or sell with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Pražská burza by se měla navrátit k růstu / BIG EXPERT - akcie: týden od 14. 1. 2013

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