Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 18, 2013 10:44:24

MIT: Examining the development of the Czech economy for 3Q12

The document includes the development of the economy during the reporting period. It focuses mainly on the major macroeconomic trends and results of industrial, construction, and foreign and domestic trade.

Czech economy extended the downward trend that started gradually slowing its pace in 2011 and subsequently, in 2012, continued to transition into decline. In 3rd quarter, gross domestic product fell by 1.3%, the worst result since the global crisis in 2009. The decline in economic performance were (despite some cooling trade abroad) internal problems. There were, in particular by further reducing domestic demand, which in 2012 became such an extent that the growth-promoting effect of foreign trade was not enough to compensate for this decline.

From the perspective of the internal conditions of a significant rise in consumer prices in September slowed slightly to 3.2%. Upside continue to act in particular the effect of tax changes, increases in energy and food price increases since the summer, due to weaker yields and higher prices of agricultural commodities on world markets. The opposite effect was limited consumer demand to dampen cost inflation.

The labor market is weaker economic condition has not fully realized, the annual growth of total employment actually rose to 0.5%. However, unemployment has risen from a lower demand for labor influenced (besides flagging economy) also loss of jobs seasonal nature. The average registered unemployment rate reached 8.4% in September and was 0.4 percentage points higher than a year ago.So far, wage moderation slowed further to 1.4% of nominal, which again has not been enough even to cover inflation. Real wages will therefore further decreased by 1.8%.

Weakening demand also affected the sector in the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Industrial production drops for the second quarter, the situation in the construction sector, which is in deep crisis, does not improve. Risk to the still relatively favorable results of foreign trade is a threat to the European internal market and the recession suffocating declining real household incomes.

For the first - 3 quarter GDP fell by 0.9% and there is no indication that the downward trend could be stopped in the short term. We therefore assume that the performance of the domestic economy in 2012 fell by more than 1% in 2013 is likely to stagnate.

Analysis of the Czech economy in the 3rd quarter of 2012 [pdf, 3794 kB]

Source: MIT

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