Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  January 18, 2013 11:08:09

Economy 2013: Higher inflation, lower growth


We believe that in the first quarter of 2013 increased inflationary expectations and reducing growth. This means that Saxo predicts:
- Lower growth than the consensus analysts
- Higher inflation expectations than the consensus analysts.

Negatives: Worldwide one percent fiscal drag resulting from fiscal cuts, rising social tensions and higher food prices.

Pros: Shale gas (lower energy costs), monetary conditions, improving sentiment, belief in stretching and posturing.

Monetary policy: We predict that developing countries will not cut rates as aggressively as it sees consensus of analysts, but expect the European Central Bank will be more aggressive than the consensus and the Fed will be more neutral (less dovish) than it sees consensus.

Rising inflationary expectations

We see two main drivers of higher inflation expectations: In the past 10 years, China was a net exporter of deflation due to falling costs of production. But that's not now, and one of the major changes in 2013 could be reopening jobs in the U.S. and Europe.

Second, we conclude that the new ceilings Fed policy (natural unemployment 6.5 percent and inflation 2.5 percent) are incorrect. Fed monetary policy has made ??the mechanical and the planned expansion of its balance sheet by 33 percent of the markets begin to question the ability of the Fed to help the economy and hamper inflation.

Lower growth

The macroeconomic outlook for the first quarter must deal with events such as the U.S. fiscal cliff and Italian choices. The final bill for the New Year arrives agreement in March 2012, when we will know the outcome, probably between 1.5 and 2 percent. We have to decide whether any of the recent improvement in data Purchasing Managers' Index and other sentiment indicators are a true reflection of improved fundamentals or just the anticipation. Official consensus on global growth is quite optimistic and we have doubts, as the global economy cope with higher levels of debt and restrictions. It will also be important to manage the emerging markets transition from export-oriented economy with domestic consumption without loss of growth and productivity.

History teaches us here that such a transition will take much longer than the calculated markets, but unlike the U.S. and Europe, where the reforms just talk, we firmly believe that Asia and particularly China will eventually correct way, just more slowly than expected.

Year 2013

Focus on cuts moves from Europe to the U.S., where they are needed, and there will be more apparent than in 2012. Emerging markets will have a high probability of a more relaxed monetary conditions and it shall the global economy up. Food prices, however, probably in 2013, fails to maintain, which means that we believe in rising inflationary expectations, in Asia, in terms of food prices, and globally in terms of higher export prices from China and all of Asia. We see an opportunity to grow thanks to the easy monetary conditions, as central banks continue to allow politicians spending too much resources. The threat of direct monetary transactions of the ECB and other wasting trillions of dollars as monetary support due to the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet 3 to 4 trillion.

Global growth and its outlook will again depend on errors, which we see from politicians. We need more micro and macroeconomics or less a clear mandate for change, to reduce unemployment, because the only real multiplier that works is self-confidence, not printing money. The year 2012 was in the wrong, but we expect that 2013 will be better, because the new bottom impotence of monetary policy and growth in us until the end of 2013 directs closer to the right path, which will be in clear opposition to the self-satisfied and naive end of 2012.

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1.4

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Eurozone

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7

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World

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2.5

estimates of GDP growth in 2013

Consensus

Saxo Bank

USA

2

0.4

-0.5

China

8.1

2.1


Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank

 

 

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Ekonomika 2013: Vyšší inflace, nižší růst

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