Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  January 18, 2013 15:41:00

The crown is still holding close to almost a minimum annual


Koruna against the euro at the end of the week so weakened and erased the gains, which reached during the week. During Friday's session, the exchange rate moved from morning quotes at 25.55 CZK / EUR by more than ten cents of 25.65 CZK / EUR. Similar results have been achieved Polish zloty. On the contrary, somewhat surprisingly managed the Hungarian forint, which, at a whole week rating improved by more than a percentage. The forint currency as vysokoúročená benefited primarily from a decrease in risk aversion inverters, especially in the context of encouraging U.S. data. Conversely zloty hurt worse still domestic macroeconomic data suggesting that the economy rapidly losing its growth momentum (Polish industrial production in December was lower by 10.6% y / y). And of course, the recession facing the Czech economy.

The problem of the Czech economy are macroeconomic imbalances, but the loss of growth dynamics and the threat of deflationary pressures. From the perspective of the external balance of the Czech crown is really nothing to fear. Statistics published in November of the current account balance showed a deficit of only 2 billion CZK, although the market had feared a worse outcome. The current account balance in a favorable trend for a long time, the deficit for the entire year 2012 will most likely be below one percent of GDP and this year we can even wait-balance. The main reason for these positive trends is the increasing surplus balance of trade balance deficit and lower yields.

The threat of deflationary pressures endorsed this week released statistics development of industrial producers. Those in December unexpectedly fell markedly by 0.3% m / m, although the market had expected a slight rise of 0.1% m / m Compared price growth slowed from November's 1.6% y / y to only 1.2% y / y in December. The intensity of any deflationary pressures will be crucial for further setting monetary policy. This, as the central bank intends to use the exchange rate, in this week again expressed the central bank governor M. Singer. Central bankers do not intend to go through Switzerland and firmly establish a threshold below which they would not get the rate. Rather, they want to inspire Singaporean model that is more flexible and much better fits to model instrumentation CNB.This could mean that the CNB at each session after a risk assessment has announced its inflation forecasts in which fluctuation band should be heading to the Czech National Bank to fulfill its mandate of price stability.

CNB will clearly prefer that the formation of transparent exchange rate expectations led to the fact that the market will do the job for her, and central bankers to avoid the realization of direct intervention in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, for the time being we do not perceive the risk of interventions such as acute. This risk would be increased if the deflation pressures will increase and the current rate is not reflected. The level of the course around 25.50 CZK / EUR may be, in our opinion, at present the central bankers happy.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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