Currencies  |  January 20, 2013 21:38:50

Monetary tip of week

Slowdown in the German economy (0.7% of GDP for 2012 versus 3% from 2011) or additional 5-9 billion, which, according to the IMF will be needed to cover financial liabilities (read deficit in the state budget), Greece, for the years 2015 and 2016. Another Successful Spanish auction, a better year on year GDP figures for 4Q world's second largest economy, China (7.9% versus expectations of 7.8% and previous 7.4%) and apposition of U.S. fiscal ceiling in March 2013th This mix of events preceding week has brought remarkable results: EURUSD -0.22% (maximum 1.34032, minimum 1.3255) GBPUSD -1.8% (maximum 1.6152, minimum 1.5851) USDJPY +0.9% (maximum 90.2, minimum 87.78) EURCHF +2.1% ( maximum 1.2567, minimum 1.2164).

JPY in spite of their losses continued slowdown in fulfilling the new leader Abe's wishlists this week and even managed to get lost against the USD over 1%. Traders and fully counted enthusiasm and ambition of the new prime minister push through its plans for racking QE from the current 110 trillion. JPY and redouble inflationary target of 2% at a meeting of members of the Board of BoJ already this Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2013. Slowing losses JPY recalled that the expectations are already counted and the continuing žiadaných JPY losses (in favor of export-ladenej economy and deflation of the vymaneniu) will need to throw something bigger. In defense of Japan should be said that atrocity nourishment for growth for political purposes (note the author) has been committed to Japan and fell into väzňovej dilemmas - and it so, the strong JPY their current structure of the economy destroyed. On the market are emerging debate about bezlimitnom QE, or to cancel depozitnej rate.If so neudeje on Tuesday morning, we expect consolidation to a later correction of loss of JPY 86.50 suportom destination is.

Story GBP You will be also like it. While in the past week GBP against the USD has lost 1.8% against the euro, it was 1.6%. This explains that the losses are primarily GBP hauled from transfers of capital from the UK back to the Eurozone problems and domestic economy play in GBP undermined a secondary role. Brexitu question (fear of speeches from EU UK) as one of the current decline in GBP kofaktorov not ruled out. Fridays a declining retail sales for December m / m (-0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%), however, pointed to the approaching turn when after these numbers, GBP against the USD forfeited, no euro of which failed to make profit. We expect, therefore, that the baton over the fate of GBP UK will take the fundamentals of the economy.

Minutes of the meeting of januárového BoE will be published this Wednesday Jan. 23, 2013. Since the rates unchanged at 0.5% as well as the refinancing program (QE) in the amount of GBP 375 billion, is expected to vote disclosure ratio sadzbám and apposition of QE. In the December vote, voted for the retention rates on the level of 0.5% of all 9 members (9:0:0), while the retention for the current QE amounting to GBP 375 billion was only 8 when David Miles since November 2011 voted for his apposition of another 25 billion GBP. Possible further voice to a potential stabilizing mils GBP bury. However, we expect unchanged rates of voting for 9:0:0 and 8:1 for apposition of QE, which can deliver more courage to GBP his suportom stabilizing above 1.5800.The prelomeniu should we believe will have dopomôcť worse numbers utorňajšie UK unemployment worse Fridays Finalisation 4Q GDP on Friday, incorrigible or nourishment Brexitu Cameron government.

CHF suffers from the transfer of capital from Switzerland back to the Eurozone as well as GBP. More than 2% growth in the euro against the CHF is the SNB two very important things. For the first political recognition for mastering protect the economy against strong CHF and after the second possibility offload part of their active balance devízovej balance. SNB is the protection level 1.2 EUR / CHF bought their balances in the euro. Anticipation of a possible gradual vypredávania EURO balance of SNB may allow current bullish moderate appetites. We expect that after Monday bullish euphoria on this pareo slow.

Commodity currencies AUD and CAD rastúcemu despite euro optimism and growing consumer economy mamutieho China stagnated. Indications of improvement not added or estimates komoditným exporter of the World Bank, which reduced the estimates of growth in the global economy in 2013 from 3% to 2.4%.

Recent macro data from the U.S. silnejúci they point not only to the real estate sector (construction begun for December +12.1% versus 3.4%) but also a change in the reaction of traders to numbers from the U.S.. It seems that traders in re restoring confidence in the euro and lost ústupom from safe harbors back to domicilom obracajú to his attention at the real state of the currency. It is certainly too early to be courageous in the allegation that USD to time ceases to be a safe harbor therefore determined factors. We need to do empirical evidence. Utorňajšie (22 January 2013), existing home sales data for January may be the situation clarified.Where better to encourage the growth figures USD, or vice versa worse numbers will lead to losses on the USD, then this argument is gaining strength. And the theorem is bad, buy USD will need time to sidetrack.

It seems that the words of Prime Minister Barossa EU euro is rescued by a crisis of the end of the 8th January 2013 shall be pursued. To higher confidence in the euro suffice indeed the political will, to be taken care of preferential financing more problematic countries through subsidies to commercial banks 'low priced' money from the LTRO (read quantitative release of the tool). The only obstacle is no longer anything but decelerating economy in the Eurozone led by principal ťahúňom Germany. Aside from political and absurdity (author's note) this time, we anticipate that the attention of traders will focus on German data.

Incompetence prelomenia resistance of 1.34 EURUSD may in the event of further negative numbers prorastové ambition EURO grave. The closest to come utorňajšie numbers ZEWu and Fridays IFO sentiment figures from Germany. We expect, therefore, that the EUR / USD in the event of further negative numbers from Germany's economy skoriguje their profits with the potential prelomenia 1.32.

Once home this week will be marked by free-trading in the U.S. (Martin Luther King Day). Flange is scheduled from Monday Eurogroup, the fun will be taken care of. The main theme this zaslúžilého congregation of the tax on financial transactions. The lack of democratic accountability and understanding that you're feeling particularly in Britain ... diplomatically mierené words from the mouth of an EU-UK Prime Minister Cameron as a positive attitude to the defense they give Brexitu suspect that UK representatives will be happy to waive similar goals.

Author:Martin Moravčík | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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