Akcieatrhy (Akcieatrhy.cz)
Markets  |  January 22, 2013 10:41:07

Apple - Analysis of the current price trend. Part first.


Sometimes nezaškodí bounce from the usual analysis of commodity futures and analyze some popular stocks . There is a saying: "The graph is simply a graph", ie the combination of price, volume and time. While fundamental analysis on the stock market dominates, but from a purely analytical point of view, this means that it is much more subjective and depends on the method of administration.The reason for the use of technical analysis based on price action, volume and time is that all fundamental factors are transformed into a purchase and sales orders, and these are shown in the graph. Graphs but also allow you to see the worst possible angles as well as they are also an integral part of the relationship between price and volume.

This last assertion we briefly discuss. Many (all?) Fundamental analysis for unknown reasons do not allow for the worst possible scenario. This is a mistake. Who decides which of the many fundamental data are the most significant? Fundamental data that are legitimate, important, pointing directly to the goal? Not burdened by analysts overestimating?

The only way that lets you know whether the analysis is correct, is to enter the market. Market participants believe that they have the best, highest quality and most elaborate information and price action, while providing them with the most expensive, but more accurate answer.

Read more:
Apple may fall, must grow
As for the moment, Apple?

Collective decisions from all possible sources is captured and recorded as a shopping market or sell orders. These business transactions revealed in the cumulative power of supply and demand, which are constantly struggling for dominance in an attempt to get one over the other.Once this constant stream of decisions about buying or selling record in the chart, it becomes an indisputable fact. These facts can then be interpreted in a way that is for a different type of analysis unavailable.

After the introduction, we can proceed to the collection of graphs. Graphs include a variety of time periods and see how real were manifested forces of supply and demand, regardless of the prevailing fundamental background. We start with the annual chart, as a longer time frame filter out short-term movements in shorter time frames. Rarely seen view of annual, quarterly, or monthly charts, however, represent a context for shorter periods of time.

When analyzing the different lengths of time frames looking for a relationship, looking for an explanatory story.We do not find it often, but if we can find some synergy begins to chart the development suddenly make sense.

Closing price of 2012 is in the bottom half of the total annual price range. Location of the closing price on plug, (or the price line) tells us who won the battle between buyers and sellers. On a yearly chart, note two things. The first is an unusually large range of price ranges of 2012 due in previous years. Whenever we see in the chart pose such a candle, then the price tends to move within the territory of the maximum and minimum price. This may mean that the price will move within a few years the band range of candles in 2012. Of course, this can not be guaranteed, but it is historically usual price progress.

Second, note the closing prices in previous years. Eight of the nine previous annual closing prices were close to yearly highs. Year 2012 is changing this normal behavior, and it may be a warning for what will follow. We do not know if other growth will continue, but we got warned. Warning from the most credible sources - directly from the market - it is necessary to be careful. The same considerations apply for all other time frames.

Chart - Analysis of Apple

Quarter to four annual development each year. In the first quarter there were exceptionally high candles, typical of a growing market. In the second quarter, growth slowed and the closing market price reached the level of the opening price and also the closing price of the first quarter. This is a very good example of how to look like a warning signal. Although the upward movement is not over, but the nature of the market has changed. This is illustrated in the third quarter of candles marked the following monthly chart number 1

Graph - design candles

Range of prices fell and, importantly, decreased trading volumes (the arrow at the daily chart at end of article) When declining trading volumes in a rising trend, it means that either lack sufficient demand, or are exhausted shoppers, or both. We got a warning from the previous quarter, when buying and selling pressure reached equilibrium. That has not increased the price range means that we should start waving a red flag.

When we look at a range of prices in the fourth quarter, the location of the final prices and volumes, which are the highest of the year, all this only underscores the negative signals that we have received over the past two quarters. You can bet that fundamental analysis expected future growth in prices, even in the fourth quarter.
Here, a fundamental and technical perspective already diverges, while most of the public prefer fundamental analysis.

On the monthly chart, we can come to the same conclusions as we did earlier for the first quarter, but add extra evaluation of business volumes. Trading volume in 1 graph is the same size as the previous month, but the result of this effort, is the final price is below the middle range of candles. Final price is even lower than last month. This is the first warning signal that are not commonly found in the news.

Several months of increasing trend marked point 2 shows that the market is creating ever growing smaller candles, accompanied by declining volumes. Candle marked point 3 is a red warning signal. Why? Look at the size of the candle.It is small with relatively weak volume, but the greatest predictive value, the position of the closing price near the lower level. This is a clear signal that the seller overwhelmed shoppers to the extent that it assumed control over the price.

Cover the last candle and see how it looks when trading on the rise given a clear warning to give careful. Traders in shares much used stop orders. Futures traders can do much better. Now when you uncover hidden candles, you will see a typical reaction that can be expected. It can be seen from the previous market behavior captured in the price chart. Overlapping candles in Section 4 reveal that there is a battle between sellers and buyers. The price is languishing around 500 USD and shoppers trying to maintain this level because he could retreat follow up to $ 400.Hence the value of this? The annual chart. That's the synergy.

Graph - dluhodobý view

Attempt at a local chart we combine tops and bottoms of the line, we get a better overview of how the trend progresses, because they filter out the "noise". In the last graph, we advise you to conceal your last candle and see how it looks when shoppers get a clear warning. It was a monthly chart and we concluded synergy between annual and monthly chart.
Let's see how it looked on the weekly chart.

At first glance directly sticks out here, as they near the top of a small range of candles. Shoppers trying to force what they need and the result anywhere. Trying for one, performance in five! Shoppers are able to move the price higher, because there are emerging sellers that pushes the price down. Look at the daily chart at the end of the article as it appeared when the price reached the top. It will make clear how the time frames complement each other and reveal additional information.

Looking at the weekly chart for part 1, we see that the price has fallen to below the level of May 2012. This is a warning that a few weeks growing trend is coming to an end. Growth weakened markedly, but not yet finished. At least until such time as we see a new lower maximum and a new lower low to confirm a change in trend.

Here we could try a little more positive view of the matter, namely that the low candles marked point 1 is higher than at the beginning of November and higher than in December. This will give rise to these two candles with higher minimum expected further growth. This whole scenario would not seem so pessimistic. However, sticking with the current, more conservative interpretation.
Point 2 indicates the trading range for the past two months and there are problems. Section 3 describes the high candle for increased volume. The price range is larger than the previous two candles together and downward positions closing price in the middle. This tells us that the shopper tried to pull the price up, but by the end of the week were top sellers and pushed the final price down. The price is not received within three weeks under 500, but attempts to get away from that price limits are not very successful.It turns out another warning signal. The last candle on the graph is such that price range is small, but the volume increase. This seems to be another warning that shoppers may keep the price above $ 500.

To be continued .....

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Apple - analýza současného cenového vývoje. Díl první. (1)

Diskuze a názory uživatelů na téma: Apple - analýza současného cenového vývoje. Díl první.
22.01. 10:47  proč klesl Apple?? (vyskočil)

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