Czech markets  |  January 22, 2013 16:11:16

Unipetrol: prediction results for 4Q2012


Results for 4Q, in our opinion, will not bring much positive news regarding the financial situation of the company. According to the management last week recognized Unipetrol depreciation of fixed assets in the amount of CZK 4.5 billion, which is negatively reflected in all indicators of outcome. This write-off (or impairment) refers to the refining segment that passes through several quarters, not only in administration Unipetrol large attenuation.

In the refining segment, sales volumes decreased by 13% q / q to 775 thousand. tons. The largest effect was a decrease in sales volumes of gasoline (-26% q / q). One reason is the problem of the gray fuel market in the Czech Republic, which is a big competition the biggest sellers. This negative impact should be limited in the future by introducing deposit CZK 20 million for each operator station.This regulatory step we deem appropriate and Unipetrol is positive and significant in the future. Also had a negative impact of inventory revaluation.

The petrochemical segment in terms of sales volumes stagnated qoq (-3% q / q). A positive effect was to stabilize prices of oil and petrochemical raw materials, higher model petrochemical olefin margin or permanent cessation of urea production unit. Its positive effect was also failure of several competitors - producers of polymers.

Retail trade was affected by lower volumes sold, especially for gasoline. This phenomenon was caused by several factors. Besides the already mentioned gray economy also weak performance of the Czech economy, tough price competition and seasonality.

According to our estimates, revenues for 4Q 2012 27 billion CZK. Operating loss before depreciation (EBITDA) was, according to our calculations CZK 3.8 billion and an operating loss (EBIT) amounted to 4.5 billion CZK. This very negative numbers are due primarily to impairment of fixed assets of 4.5 billion CZK. Excluding this effect, operating profit was in line with our estimates -27 million CZK. Net income is forecast due to the expected high tax credit "only" -3.1 billion CZK.

In a conference call, we expected especially indication of management, which sees the outlook mainly in the refining segment in the coming quarters. Also, we are interested in uncovering details about the high impairment.


The whole prediction results downloadpdf



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Unipetrol: predikce výsledků za 4Q2012

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