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World markets  |  January 22, 2013 18:33:27

Nick Beecroft: Choose to share profits and wait for an opportunity

Germans might nod at this year Eurobonds, U.S. Republicans argument over debt ends by throwing the towel into the ring, and with it all this year would have to pay a bet on risk. The first quarter but still can be quite stormy. Therefore Nick Beecroft, chairman of the London branch of Saxo Bank, at the moment, advises mild defensive. Once you said but the S & P 500 would fall by 5 percent or more, investors rely portfolio of up to 60 percent of the shares.

Nick Beecroft

Traditionally, you are one of the prophets of doom. I assume that your outlook for this year is not too pink. How bad do you think this year will be thus?

Nick Beecroft (NB): Here in Britain, it is said that a leopard never changes its pattern on the skin. In other words, people do not change, under which I and I recently signed. But be careful - I'm a model, therefore, its position has changed. I feel is an odd whiff of optimism, thanks to America. Sure, it's in front of us a few turbulent weeks, maybe months, charged arguing for fiscal cliff, and the debt ceiling.But I finally manage to stave off collapse, perhaps at the last minute, maybe before we will see a lot of ugly, horrific headlines in the newspapers, but that it will end.

Quite a few experts expect the opposite. They claim that the ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans too great.

NB: The Republican party is demoralized. In the House of Representatives, while having their leader, but his position greatly suffered. Therefore, I think that they just do not feel like fighting. In addition, you certainly aware that Americans in November clearly say what they think and want. It is politics at the center of the political spectrum, which is based on compromise. According to me that is, before the beginning of March may be a certain decline, but it will be taken as an interesting opportunity to purchase. In this context, I mean especially risky assets, such as shares.If you go down, it's certainly an interesting opportunity.

I think the debt problems in America resolved and local businesses that now sits on a huge pile of cash to start investing. It will be very significant boost. But do not expect that it will be the only one. The crisis in the euro area is managed to tame, which should also help to remove the barriers that hinder investment and job creation.

What would this scenario could compromise where you think the focus of potential problems?

NB: In particular the first quarter for investors can be tricky. Therefore, if you earn a share in the fourth quarter of last year or at the beginning of this year, I would advise you to choose at least part of the profits. We can not wait loops is due to arguments about fiscal cliff.

In addition, China has slowed, the country is undergoing a necessary transition from export-driven economy based on the economy to a greater extent on domestic consumption. It will be slow and not always smooth, which probably means slower growth. This may frighten markets. Well, the third time is necessary to mention the euro area, which during the year may re-apply for a word in a negative sense.

How, according to Nick Beecroft portfolio look into current market conditions can be found on the web Investment

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