BHS (BH Securities a.s.)
Macroeconomics  |  January 23, 2013 16:31:13

The IMF lowered its estimate for global growth this year, the euro area has to remain in recession

International Monetary Fund (IMF) today issued an update to its previous outlook of October. For this year, reducing the estimate of global GDP growth from +3.6% to +3.5%, while last year's growth should reach 3.2%. For the euro area reduces the view from +0.2% to -0.2%, ie. region has the second consecutive year, according to the IMF to remain in recession. Outlook for the U.S. was reduced from +2.1% to +2%.

The Eurozone mentions Although changes, respectively. decline in yields on bonds troubled countries such as Spain, as a disadvantage, however, indicates essentially a record 11.8% unemployment. In Germany alone this year expects GDP +0.6% (previously +0.9%), next year +1.4% (previously +1.3%). In the euro area in 2014 is expected to grow +1%, then globally +4.1% (previously +4.2%). The outlook for the U.S. increased from +2.9% to +3%.

IMF mentions the current monetary policy changes in Japan, however, confirms previous growth outlook to 1.2%, for the year 2014 then even offer reduced from +1.1% to +0.7%.

The global driver would actually be left China. The IMF's outlook affirmed at +8.2%, respectively. to +8.5% in 2014.

J. Ramakrishnan

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