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Macroeconomics  |  January 23, 2013 17:05:32

10 biggest geopolitical risks in 2013

China will have to deal with the hunger for uncensored information to the public, the Israeli-Iranian tensions could be a great impetus to the emergence of regional conflict and North Africa will be decided between secularization and Islamization. 10 biggest geopolitical risks for 2013 as presented every year Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group.

"Concerns about geopolitical risks in the developed world are compared to the actual risks disproportionately high. Despite controversy in the U.S. Congress, which we will certainly witness this year, were panic fears that the collapse of the U.S. fiscal cliff exaggerated.And as well as fears of a possible collapse of the euro zone and the stagnation of Japanese politics have been and continue to be, in my opinion, irrelevant, "says Bremmer.

Yet we some event witnessed in 2013 will either certainly or most likely we could be, we should not trivialize. The following list shows only the top 10 threats, but also adds 5 topics that would be contrary to any global unrest should be involved to a much lesser extent than is currently expected.

First Emerging markets will lose their benefits

Emerging markets will continue to exhibit higher volatility than the markets of advanced industrial democracies. Some emerging markets will be an offering in 2013 more or less safely interesting opportunities, but during their golden age is past.Potential risks and emerging markets this year will vary from case to case. Bremmer distinguishes three types of emerging markets - almost developed, still growing and declining. Especially in the last case, investors may become witnesses and victims of unforeseen developments.

Second Chinese Information crisis peak

In recent months we have seen a huge increase in demand for information of all kinds. In the United States, virtually no person whose privacy would be the last time did not experience serious blows. New Yorkers, for example, newly exactly know which of their neighbors own a gun license and a gun, conceal infidelity before the world could now former CIA chief David Petraeus and the Internet community has not escaped the attention of an accident or sister of Mark Zuckerberg, whose photo-onlyfriends due to carelessness Randine now divided the whole world.

The technologically advanced and simultaneously democratic countries these interventions in individual privacy annoying, but that's basically all. Another situation is the case in China, which has far to democracy. Growing educated middle class and modern demands a more independent and free information, which, of course, most Chinese do not like politicians. It is clear that this conflict can not be ignored indefinitely. The question remains as to how the Chinese information crisis is resolved.

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  • Third Arab Spring and the Middle East: Israeli-Iranian relations and the threat of Islamization

    Probably the biggest risk in 2013, according to Bremmer escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, with the accompanying threat of armed conflict. Middle East risk is all the greater that any Israeli-Iranian conflict would certainly not without response from other countries. If a conflict involving the United States, which are considered to be the patron of Israel, it would be a big question, how would preserve Russia.

    The danger may be, but in addition to the Middle East and North African countries and the Arabian Peninsula. In particular, North African countries led by Egypt in 2013 find themselves at a crossroads and will be forced to make a final decision whether to bear their future in the name of secularism, or vice versa leans towards Islamization and rupture with America and Europe.For now, it seems that secularization is not the way you would like to give an Islamic country. This tendency is confirmed by the new Egyptian constitution, but also the persistent Sunni-Shiite disputes in the countries affected by the Arab Spring.

    More from investment analysis firm Eurasia Group can be found on the web Investment

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