Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  January 25, 2013 08:22:00

Euro benefits from better data


Rate USD / EUR, after meeting the ECB already holds two weeks in the band from 1.325 to 1.34. During yesterday's session the euro extended gains slightly when he reached the level of 1337.

This movement helped leading indicators published purchasing managers (PMI). The overall index is recorded stronger rise than expected, and the two sub-indices evaluating the situation in the industrial sector and in services. The figures, however, seen a divergence in the evolution of the two largest European economies. While the German enjoyed both of the main indicators of ups and even their structure sounded more favorably in France there was a decrease in both industry and services. This could be related to the fact that the country is the Gallic rooster with his production of more tied to developments in Spain and Italy, while Germany is more influenced by the development of the entire global economy.Today will be published next most watched indicator in the form of the German Ifo index of business confidence. Due to the already published indices (ZEW, PMI) there is a real chance that today's indicator could pleasantly surprise you. In this case, the euro could further expand their profits.

Yesterday the euro could rise to a certain extent, hamper indication of the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S.. He compared the market expected rise decreased, indicating a gradually improving conditions in the U.S. labor market. We provide a comprehensive picture next Friday summary report. If positively surprised by the creation of new jobs, speculation about early termination of asset purchases by the Fed will increase further. Today, the United States will see data on sales of new homes. Even in this sector of the economy are visible signs of the improving situation.Colleagues from SG are large compared to the market optimistic, and if their estimate filled, the dollar could in the afternoon today euro gains can be wiped out.

Therefore, if today we see a surprise on both sides of the Atlantic, the USD / EUR would eventually major changes compared to current levels did not notice.

An interesting trend can be observed on the movement of Japanese yen. He had reached the 2.5-year low against the dollar and the euro against 21měsíční bottom. Japanese authorities are desperately tries to weaken its currency in order to achieve as soon as the new inflation target set at two percent (December's inflation reached 0.2% y / y). The Japanese currency has been reluctant to significantly weaken after the central bank's meeting on Tuesday, when some investors did not consider approved steps to be sufficient, but yesterday's comments deputy ministereconomy sent only to the ground. It is suggested that a weakening currency is over and that the level of the exchange rate JPY / USD to 100 would not be a significant problem (now at 90.52).


Author: Miroslav Frayer

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