Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  January 25, 2013 15:51:00

On the domestic foreign exchange market, there is extreme serenity

On the domestic foreign exchange market this week, there was absolute silence. Poor economic calendar and therefore lack impulses are signed in extremely quiet exchange rate developments. Domestic currency throughout the week held steady around the level of 25.60 CZK / EUR and nothing changed on either end of the week. Compared with regional currencies, the Czech crown has flourished. The Polish zloty is during the week lost one percent against the euro, the Hungarian forint-week losses even reached one and three-quarters percent, while the percentage of the entire Hungarian currency lost during Friday's session and gained the weakest level since June last year. Friday started weakening much deeper than expected fall in November retail sales (-4.1% y / y, on the contrary the market expected to improve to -3.2% y / y in October, -3.7%).Number so not only fit into a negative mood in the Hungarian market, which is caused by fear of new leadership Hungarian central bank. Absolute pro-government majority in the Bank Board to take power in March.

Only national statistical indicator of the week was a short-term survey for January. Economic confidence index in January fell to 82.8 points, mainly due to a decline in consumer confidence. They fear not only according to the survey of future economic development, but also their own financial situation. Adverse effect on the labor market situation and concerns arising from price increases. For entrepreneurs, the confidence has not changed much, if impaired mood in industry and commerce was compensated by better prospects in services. Overall, data does not change the current image on the Czech economy.The weak household consumption are being joined by weakening orders in industry and lower demand from abroad for Czech goods.

From a fundamental point of view, next week as well as the boring ending. This is especially true for the first half of the week. Thursday will be published in the December monetary survey, on Friday, the PMI index of industrial activity and the outcome of the state budget in January. PMI should build on this week published short-term survey. We expect, therefore, that the index will continue to be located in a zone of decreasing activity, even after a significant decline in December to 46.0 points after all we expect improvements in section 47.1.

The crown should continue to be compared to the long term equilibrium level weaker. Under the approach NATREX estimate the equilibrium level at around 25.00 CZK / EUR. Due to the recession is weaker koruna justifiable. The course will also become an instrument of monetary policy, which is under the current inflation outlook from the CNB again more reason to prefer a weaker currency. CNB meeting on monetary policy to take place on 6 February. In the next week, so we may see a possible media statements of central bankers at risk of verbal intervention.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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