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Macroeconomics  |  January 26, 2013 14:57:42

2013 - The United States pushed into isolation

Year 2013 will be in terms of global economic development, no pleasure -   global financial war   resetting of the global financial system continues. What will be the main trend of this development? Pushing the U.S. into isolation.

At first glance, something unimaginable. But is it really such nonsense? It does not have to be. For me it will be one of the major geopolitical trends of 2013 and subsequent years.

It will not be a "splendid isolation", which boasted the United Kingdom during the 19th century, but to push the United States into isolation against their will. Indications are numerous:

  • new Asian free trade area with the exclusion of the United States
  • end of petrodollars
  • start the test mode of a new global financial system.

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At the meeting, the ASEAN group at the end of November, a development that could prove to be very important, but which has received very little publicity.ASEAN group of countries inviting China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, with them formed a free trade area covering half the world's population.

At the same summit, spoke of its proposal for collaboration with the United States and ASEAN countries and other countries in the Trans Pacific Partnership, U.S. President Obama. This proposal did not include contrast cooperation with China. His proposal was rejected and the United States was not invited to join the newly forming free trade zone.

Asia today is far more important for China trade partner than the United States. The fact that the Chinese economy stays afloat export to the United States, has long been a myth. Export to the United States is less than one-fifth of China's exports (400 billion dollars), the Chinese export mentioned Asian countries is almost half as much. As for import, import from Asian countries, China is almost five times more than than import from the United States.

At this summit, therefore China over the United States won ko see this development as an important signal about trying to eliminate the Asian countries and the United States to reduce their global power.

End of petrodollars

System built on petrodollars towards its end, the proverbial nail in the coffin can be a struggle for succession in Saudi Arabia. Death of King Abdullah, who was considered the most powerful man in the Muslim world, according to many analysts, may lead Saudi Arabia to the edge of the cliff.Similarly, apparently counting time and other monarchs of the Gulf countries.

Do not forget that China is slowly but surely strengthening its position in the Gulf   - Starting with Iraq and Saudi Arabia   ending. This has the ambition to become a global oil trading broker. Indeed, according to a recent agreement between Russia and China, for example, Germany can, if interested, to pay for Russian oil Chinese currency and Russia will accept it. The edge of the cliff so close and petrodollars.

Especially when it is about to nudge an emerging competitor, in my opinion, again, with the tacit support of China.

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Slowly emerges another country that will have a big impact on global economic developments - Turkey. Its influence greatly strengthened when refused to join the antiíránským banking sanctions and when it began to trade with Iran in gold.

What   Turkey hyst? Contributes to the emergence of a new global financial system covered with gold. Motivation to Turkish step can also be an effort to show the European Union something like "If you reject us, we can do what we want ... and the impact on you does not bother us." Do not forget that the town is one of the strongest human motivations.

Turkish export of gold in the first 11 months in 2012 is nearly order of magnitude larger than that for 2011 (12.7 billion compared to $ 1.5 billion USD). Half of it went to Iran, the third and the United Arab Emirates, which, according to all thetrade "oil-for-gold" along. Trading volumes does not it would be just buying for myself. I would rather these countries compared to the mediator brokers trades for clients. The whole system yet apparently works in test mode.

If you do it cleverly, these countries could take advantage of the current situation to build a new market. The newly established oil market will trade only for gold. Oil-producing countries would suddenly given the opportunity to sell oil for dollars, but directly for gold. This new market could significantly affect the power of the world's financial centers.

You can argue that   countries probably will want to have gold under their control   and transported gold in the world here and there probably will not be the ideal solution. Then offers system covering not only trade in crude oil (these are one-way), but also other international businesses interested members using regular multilateral credits and balancing only differences.It is possible to introduce   global barter system   with settlement in gold, as I wrote about it almost a year ago.

United States defends itself

The United States is really afraid of isolation. Recently, reports emerged that deal with the European Union on the creation of an economic union. Create classical economic union not be easy, the degree of control on both sides of the Atlantic (eg the labor market) is vastly different, not to mention the principles of taxation.

Whatever the reasons may be, such actions perceived as an attempt to escape from impending isolation and create a block in the ongoing financial war whose winner will set a new global financial system. Countries on both sides of the Atlantic realize that unless it is allied, China and its allies is defeating.

-Webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "> A key role in this meeting will play Germany. Yet teetering on the fence and is still able to adhere to both sides. Whether to reunite with the rest of Europe and the United States, or become part of axis Berlin - Moscow - Beijing. integral part of both blocks at once could be.

The fact that the current situation in the United States do not take lightly evidenced by the effort to map all the people who hold their bonds.I can not otherwise explain recent U.S. government claim that Swiss pension funds, the U.S. government reported the detailed structure of their portfolios. It seems that the United States is trying to get a detailed overview of U.S. securities held by foreign pension funds.  

What to say in conclusion?

The progressive isolation of the United States is the last thing the U.S. wanted, and so they will defend with all available means.

Year 2013 will be the event poor. We have to look forward to, the struggle for a new global financial system power continues and as I said before -   Who escapes, wins .

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