TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Currencies  |  January 27, 2013 22:26:51

Monetary tip week (January 27th 2013)


iPoint.cz Among the weakest currency last week belonged to the Japanese yen, which against the USD lost 1.2% and the euro up 2.37%. Main merit of retail utorňajšie BoJ meeting, which was adopted on Abe's inflationary target of 2% and run an unlimited quantitative release of the January 2014th Initial fears of investors about shortness of these steps to fight deflation odviali your records Phrases intervention. Minister of State for Economic Nishimura They dispelled fears of weak traders to exchange JPY arguing that only the weak can be bad for the economy as at 110 or 120 JPY per USD.These comments contributed to žiadanému SALE JPY to the current level 91 USD / JPY. Perseverance and determination in promoting the Japanese representatives of the Abekonomiky (combat deflation and growth) leaves our outlook for the JPY continues Bear with mid-term targets at 95.00 USD / JPY.

Failed to even komoditným Asian currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar with a weekly loss of -1.4% against the USD. The reason was stredajšie BoC meeting at which bank left rates unchanged at 1%. More importantly, however, it was estimated reduction in growth for the Canadian economy in 2013 from 2.3% to 2% as well as a reduction in the estimate for inflation. Just inflation, which is expected to BoC until the end of 2013 comfortably below 2% inflationary view, got USD / CAD level just below 1.1 This week we expect Canadian GDP on Thursday for December with growth of +0.2% compared to +0.1% novembrovým.These figures, however, do not have the potential to change the overall trend, which will depend on the earlier of piatkových U.S. numbers and overall risk sentiment. We believe, however, that can hold up further losses and thus help the USD / CAD to consolidate in the zone 1.02/1.00.

The British pound loss in the past week just stopped. With a loss of -0.4% GBP / USD but it is no longer any moneymaker. Libra overcame dreaded speech Cameron's relations to the United Kingdom and the European Union with a slight gains even when Prime Minister rutinérsky zotrvaní conditional upon a referendum on the EU to his election, and again for the mid-term of the new mandate (2017/2018).The team has offered the EU the necessary time without gave way to less of their requirements do in Brussels, more capitals in member countries (More about the speech, Cameron and his analysis and Brexit I. Cameron , Cameron and Brexit II. ). Pound but finally sunk concerns about potentially already in recession in the third year in a row. Before you can publish piatkových 4Q GDP traders vypredali GBP, which is so nevertheless came under level 1.58. Subsequent Fridays numbers confirm the eligibility of these concerns when 4Q GDP showed 0.0% to stagnation medziročnej base compared with expectations of +0.2%.Because of this calendar weeks of us does not bring any relevant figures from the United Kingdom (except piatkových PMI manufacturing) and GBP in the last week showed the potential needed to stabilize their losses, let your outlook on GBP / USD neutral for this week. Business zone 1.5730/00 1.5890.

On the contrary, the euro was attributed gains in this week. EUR / USD with a +1.1% surpassing the dreaded on-resistance 1.34 after that, what is the excellent číslam surveys of managers and Business Environment (ZEW, PMI and IFO from Germany) added on Fridays and above backlinks to offer commercial bank money požičaných drawback of 3 - yearly to the ECB LTRO to 30 January 2013. Offer reached a height of 137.2 billion of total 278 banks, those were the original expectations of 100 billion euros. High return would indicate a higher EU banks' solvency.Confidence - that was the reason for which the ECB decided in December 2011 to introduce the first LTRO (refinancing of commercial banks in exchange for securities for a fixed interest rate of 1% to 3 years) for the banking sector in a volume of 489 billion graduation in three years (until then graduation only in 3 and 6 months). About three months later, in February 2012 added an additional second LTRO to three years with a total volume of 529.5 billion. Overall, the ECB provided commercial banks refinancing this program more than 1 trillion. EUR. The aim of these operations was to substitute Freezing interbank market, which have ceased to trust. The consequences of such a market we should be able to see immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, when a daily interbank rate jumped to 5 to 6-fold their normal levels. Banks have stopped due to unbelief lend money to one another.

Euro this cocktail administrations helped to prelomeniu resistances at 1.34 and the achievement of weekly maxima at 1.3478, that is just below the next key resistance of 1.35. Prelomením retain this resistance of the EUR The growth outlook with a mid-term targets by 1.4 EUR / USD.

On Tuesday, we anticipate further survey, consumer confidence numbers from Germany by the agency GFK. Their positive expectations of the scent they give a positive outlook for the euro in the preface of this week. Citibank analyst Juergen Michels, however, cautions against optimism prirýchlim backed piatkovými bad bids from LTRO. They claim that a number of banks have done so to appease the markets, but in fact, their problems do not stop and may continue to have problems.His words would have had to confirm the much larger demand of banks at 3 monthly refinancing operations, which will be communicated to the central bank this Tuesday. Evaluation of the demand we expect on Thursday. As the demand of this less liquidity, or in accordance with expectations, these concerns can be excluded.

On the other hand, we do not know which bank the majority participated in this Postpay offer of LTRO. There is increasing concern about the Eurozone dvojzložkovej in which they are more healthier Nordic banks. Spain's Minister of Finance for the agency Bloomberg said on Friday that a large proportion of the most comes from the Spanish banks. Confirmation of these words, and disproof concerns (we expect it to happen until Thursday) would leave euro male bovines had their appetites even profitable for this week.

The prelomeniu 1.35 level, however, except for the above reasons and will not rush due to the forthcoming week's main event Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment in the U.S.. These numbers will be posted on Fridays by 14:30. Expected to equal job creation for January as the previous month at 155,000 jobs, with the unemployment unmodified 7.8%.

Crucial scrolls in this week so zohrajú supplementary information for retroactive offers taken from the LTRO, stredajšia refinancing operations of the ECB, FOMC Fridays and figures from the U.S. labor market.

Author: Martin Moravčík | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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