Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 28, 2013 11:21:54

Macro outlook for the 5th week - a rich week with Friday's climax

This week will be really rich in data, especially in the United States. Friday will be the most important data from the labor market. Data on weekly applications for unemployment benefits suggests that continues relatively favorable. Market assessments of the changes in the number of jobs is down to earth (150, 000), could surprise on the upside. If expectations are confirmed or even overcome, this should help the market. On Monday the published data on the development of durable goods orders. Czech with a solid growth of 1.9%. This figure, however, is chronically volatile and hard to predict, so there is always a risk of major surprises and significant market reaction.On Tuesday, followed by consumer confidence, which is pending in practical stagnation. In our view, consumers could surprise positively for the improving situation on the labor market. In the middle will be published first preliminary data on GDP in the fourth, quarter of last year, another very important number. The market is relatively cautious, waiting for the weak growth of 1.2%. The caution are good reasons - high base of the third quarter and some data indicate a weakness growth HD / P in the fourth quarter. The market may react negatively, but response should be limited (unless the fact considerably worse than expected). Thursday will be published on the evolution of personal income and spending. Czech with strong growth in personal income, confirming market expectations, should help. On the same day will be published on the Chicago purchasing managers index, and on Friday the national ISM manufacturing index.Both are waiting for a slight decline. Weak regional indices indicate a negative surprise, but the purchasing managers index points to the contrary, a positive surprise. So the relatively high uncertainty and room for surprises and market reaction. In Europe, as usual, at the end of a set of confidence indicators published and preliminary data on the retail prices. On Friday we will have definitive data on manufacturing purchasing managers index in the EU. In the middle will be published results of the FOMC.

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