Currencies  |  January 28, 2013 13:01:06

Tokyo route Brussels Europe, follows the Japanese way this veto would not even be not a big surprise. Economy on it is not so good, not so bad, the eurozone would be this year could even get out of position's biggest threat for financial markets. Ireland would be this year could get out of control supranational debt-police (Troika), talk about Grexite is away from the table and speculators ceased to strike eurozone breakup (even Goldman Sachs buys Euro).

For all this, however, is not something for what might owe Brussels.Eurozone may be especially thank the ECB (Draghi we will do everything to rescue the euro, launching a program to purchase bonds) and the USA (concerns about eurozone fiscal cliff came from headlinov). In this environment of tranquility temporary politicians are starting to drift off to vavrínoch publisher solutions again and speak more than their act. You can even begin to think that what they did so far, enough. Lead Draghi reassure the market and everything looks to be in order. Only that it would not. There is no pending notification who bail out the banks in the event of difficulties, guaranty deposits at the level of the euro area is still only on paper, similar to a Banková Union and the ECB as surveillance (originally should have been this year, it was deferred to the year 2014).

Even if the eurozone managed to jump-start growth, it still is not a sustainable solution to the debt problems. And behold, we have from afar. Currently we are in recession, and instead are talking about reforms stimuloch and that the euro is some prisilné. And that's exactly the way the Japanese, although nowhere nespejeme, but to stimulate debates and too much. And of course we have those incentives. While the market will focus on new and new weapons against deflation and stagnation of Tokyo, to ignore that by the same route to be issued and the EU. Although the EU unemployment rate at 10.7% of GDP and debt of 87% vs. Japan 4.1% to GDP and debt of 208% and the EU, yet not so long as nestagnuje Japanese (second decade), but everything has its time.If so it will go further, live to see the day on which the ECB will also raise inflationary target and combat deflation on behalf of interruption dlhoročnej Period stagnation.

The downside, of course, it is the EU akcieneschopnosť. Integrating stood up to half way and there are only two paths, full integration, or step back in favor of the whole cooperating States with their own currencies (the euro area and thus decay preserve EU). Abeyance midway us sooner or later, will bring unexpected crisis events, which we quickly moves to one or the other options. A third way is the Japanese. And she does not look exactly najlákavejšie. Where would be the third largest economy in the world (Japan) also added the eurozone, which is by its aggregate size somewhere in between the U.S. and China, we should challenge.Since the world's largest economy would become dependent on the strength of its currency (easier to weaken the menu is how to improve the competitiveness through innovation), and all they'd like to export it somewhere. Since this step is not far to full politizácii central banks, with one ušľachtilým view, print enough money for the payment deficits and a weakening currency in favor of exporters. Of course, very temporary and limited. Hopefully, we have learned from the events taking place in Weimarskej Republic of the early 20th years.

However, this is music of other years and looking to avoid it (and therefore ever want decide to voters). Essential information is the fact that Brussels will not be able to sleep late this entire year. Reprezentujúci minority strongest voice of sanity in the eurozone, German Chancellor Merkel is losing the popularity.Stratil region Nizhny Saxonska and although still has the highest preference (and higher than the elections in 2009), they have a declining trajectory. Accordingly, the chancellor will give more attention to what he says and dedicate more domestic affairs. And now the month will be elections in Italy, where and would not get into the prime minister's Draghi, trust market can be disturbed. Well, it still nespomíname France, which still insists that this year will outgrow as Germany and put on your debt reduction plan, whom do not believe even the IMF. So it will be more fun and a period of peace will have to lose something that Brussels Awaken again. Because he does not yet have in order to solve any problems, it is essential rhetoric, image and pressure to a greater centralization.Crisis is always a chance and that therefore we should not squander this time.

Last week, the excellent data from Germany, which helped restrain the euro at the highest levels since November 2011 (well we overcome Last year the tops). From there, however, it again takes over the U.S. and in bulk orders of long-term consumption of goods today, consumer confidence is tomorrow and Wednesday GDP data from the labor market and the FOMC meeting. This will be something to look forward and we sincerely curious, how long lasts buoyant mood in the market. When it is good, you get used to ignore the problems. We see currently is celebrating the fact that the eurozone does not break today and moved the U.S. debt ceiling in a few weeks. Little low on 5-highs for the year on shares and 5% from the historical highlights of the S & P500.

When we have promotions in the U.S., the S & P500 index on Friday closed it above the level of 1500 first time since the end of 2007, futures contracts are still hesitant to overcoming this level. On Friday we saw a slight disappointment for the sale of new homes, real estate market, but now is certainly not the biggest problem the U.S., rather the contrary. However, as we have been mentioning the above, we are waiting for a very important data and share it the sixth day after they grow themselves. The growth we see intraday channel so suportom at 1492 above sea The growth, RESISTANCE 1500th For 1492 prelomenia level down tends to 1483rd

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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