Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  January 28, 2013 13:34:35

5th week in commodities - oil strengthened, weakened gold and soft commodities have resulted in mixed

Willingness to buy risky assets with hand in hand with the expected regeneration of the world economy improves. And it helps commodities. For example - in January pulled up petroleum energy sector, which saw strong gains. Their role was also played by better economic data from the engine of the European economy, namely Germany, as well as a continuation of quantitative easing from Japan and the postponement of the hearing on the amount of the U.S. debt ceiling along with a weaker dollar.

Positive mood was felt across all asset classes, especially in the equity markets. MSCI global equity index, which includes the world's largest companies, reached their highest levels since July 2008. The positive momentum that we could see for commodities, especially during the last few weeks, managed only spur commodity index S & P GSCI up to three months maximum. Its yield was during January was 2.7 percent, while the aforementioned MSCI grew by 5.2 percent. As you can see in the graph below, the gains are carried across all major commodity sectors. Weak moment chose only the area of livestock, which falls into the agricultural sector.The different performances of these two indices can be attributed to differences in exposure to specific commodities and different sectors.

Among soft commodities were winners and losers

Softs ranked highest but also the lowest place in the ranking of the performance of commodities from the past week. Top fared cotton, which has had the longest rally in the last two years.Is expected that some American cotton growers in the coming season shift towards better crops, such as the corn and soybeans. While the United States is the largest exporter of cotton in the world, and thus the supply of this raw material could be reduced. On the contrary, the worst result in the coffee and cocoa, which fell to a six-month minimum. Were behind the news that the world's largest producers of cocoa beans - Ivory Coast and Ghana - raiser current supply by selling to the next part of the harvest, and at a time of falling demand, especially from Europe. Coffee arabica type failed to create a positive momentum in just one session dropped its price by five percent. The reason the information that a group of South American Arabica producers exported in the last quarter of 2012 by 15 percent of the crop.Speculative traders while still holding their net short positions. Coffee production could also weaken the sharp reports of the spread of the fungus Roya coffee across Central America.

Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank

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