Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  January 28, 2013 13:54:29

Currency market: The calm before the storm? Volatility in the pre-crisis levels of 2007

Stability in currency markets reaching levels that were last seen before the crisis in 2007. This is just the calm before the storm? Which currencies should this be a potential risk to touch the most?

Major world currencies (except the Japanese yen) in recent months without a major trading volatility. She fell to the lowest point since mid-2007. The primary explanation for this huge peace, taking into account the size of sovereign debt is the simple fact that banks simply will not allow that showed systemic risk and that Bank interventions have always come at the slightest sign of crisis. But history has repeatedly shown that the period of very low volatility is the time of maximum likelihood. Is a situation where the market is able to sense at least lurking danger, and thus a new threat can have enormous consequences.

With so obvious to calm markets is a key issue of identification of potential risks that lurk in the world's currency in 2013 and could disrupt the current paradigm.

The first risk is known race on the depreciation of national currencies by central banks of economies that are trying to "print" your way out of the current economic and fiscal problems.

The second risk is bigger - the risk of "awakening". In this case, the danger may lie in the awakening of the market and the realization that the current calm markets is on shaky grounds, namely that endless manipulations of central banks economy in the long term is destabilizing rather than vice versa.Monetary expansion and subsequent stability pretense only leads to fragile and dependent on further handling the economy. If the market realizes this could lead to a sudden and fierce closing imbalances between poor economic outlook and rising asset prices. Currency on the market, this could significantly affect the currencies highly volatile in response to risk - especially in emerging economies, but also on the currencies of countries dependent on exports of raw materials and the U.S. dollar. For example, Australian or New Zealand dollar.

John J. Hardy, currency strategist at Saxo Bank

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