Research (Česká spořitelna)
Currencies  |  January 29, 2013 10:56:37

Tomsik (CNB) is ready to support any intervention


V.Tomšík of BR CNB yesterday reiterated that if inflationary pressures in the economy (like that yet so it seems), is ready to support intervention. Although in our view, did not say much new, duck responded weakness in 25.70. In terms of the CNB meets next week, we see it as another verbal intervention. The most interesting part of the interview is when Tomšík says he does not fear a further decline in consumption, that on the contrary, thinks deflationary mentality of consumers could possible break higher import prices and that consumers have recently increased from precautionary savings motives. Well, I do not know - the whole export prices grew min. year and consumption declined anyway, deflationary mentality and waiting for lower prices yet see, rather (egin terms of the confidence of households) see fear and uncertainty. A savings rate - CSO in quarterly accounts gives a rate of gross domestic savings 10.7% in 3Q12, 9.8% in 3Q11, 12.8% in 3Q10.

For reasons that we played in our Speciál last week, and in terms of the economic outlook (which is, as the German PMI / IFO will improve in the coming months), I still think to intervene eventually happen. That's why we opened yesterday EURCZK short investment recommendations to 25.30 and the horizon three months. But it is a lot of speculative recommendations, stop-loss is narrow (about 1.5%)

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Tomšík (ČNB) je připraven podpořit případné intervence

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