Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  January 29, 2013 12:11:03

Estimates: Fed buys assets for the year 1.14 trillion, the end of QE in 1Q14

According to a survey by Bloomberg Fed buys this year at QE within other assets in a total volume of about 1.14 trillion. Purchase of assets will be completed during Q1 2014.
Respondents generally estimate that the agreed monthly purchases in the range of 40 billion U.S. dollars of mortgage bonds and 45 billion of government bonds will continue despite growing opposition from some members of the Monetary Committee of the U.S. central bank.
Prior to stopping the program of asset purchases, you will need to keep the economy for some time showed solid growth data, which still does not occur by the comments in the course of this year, but later.
Members of the FOMC this year's estimated growth of GDP of the United States between 2,3-3%, market forecasts in the Bloomberg survey are somewhat more sober and work with an average of around 2%.

57% of the 44 survey respondents estimated that the purchase of assets can significantly promote the creation of new jobs this year. Shift from the current rate of unemployment at 7.8% this year will be small. QE program this year can only create 250,000 new jobs compared to 1.8 million in 2012.

For January is estimated to create 155,000 new jobs compared to December's 000th 160

63% of respondents said that the suspension of asset purchases will mainly contribute to sustainable improvement in the labor market. Only 13% estimated that the completion of the program is due to acceleration of inflation or rise in inflation expectations. Currently, inflation stands at 1.4%, which is below the Fed's long-term target set at 2%. Investors for the next 5 years, with an average growth calculate inflation by 2.24% compared to 2.1% estimated in December.

The proportion of respondents stating that the Fed's monetary policy is too loose in the survey rose to 40% compared to 27% in December.

In the first round of QE in 2008, the Fed bought a total of mortgage bonds for 1.4 bln.USD and, moreover, government bonds for 300 mld.USD, the QEII, which began in late 2010, it was then a further 600 mld.USD in state Bonds. The QEIII counts with the purchase of mortgage bonds for 600 mld.USD and purchase government bonds for another 540 mld.USD. The total assets of the Fed for the first time in history, got over 3 trillion dollars.

Today begins the regular two-day FOMC meeting on setting rates and monetary policy.
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Odhady: Fed letos nakoupí aktiva za 1,14 biliónu USD, konec QE v 1Q14

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