TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Currencies  |  January 30, 2013 12:37:21

Whereat worry traders


Today, U.S. stocks will have a great day awaits us triad of important publication, with additional days even then coming over other important publication, as the manufacturing sector ISM, Chicago Fed or the unemployment rate along with the overall job creation.

Whereas now we see the EU minimum and put on good periphery bond auctions we have got used (and also euro), all the attention will focus on the USD. The current rally has been going on since the summer of last year, the share price increased by 20%, approaching the zone prehrievania (as measured by RSI, which is at the highest level since September 2012, when shares reached the top, who was beaten until this year) and includes numerous pieces reasons that the stock has risen to and sadly skorigovali. So let us make the arguments for and against:

The reality is that more and more traders to switch from mode to fear nenásystnosť. Their sole strachom is that it does not manage to capitalize on this growth. Is no longer even speak about a great rotation of assets out of the bond direction to shares. Economic data from the U.S. and China were relatively good, inflationary risks are now really dipped. Needless us safe harbors, inflation or bankruptcy now they are not No. 1 problem The result is a growth in U.S. bond yields and Germany (and thus decrease the value of their bond), a drop of precious metals, CHF, etc. But the shares are for 5 year olds and no spikes and no skorigovať. The first big question is whether the U.S. earnings growth does not cause a problem. While it is nothing great, yields are just the highest since March 2012. Provided that the assets (such as shares) grow faster than revenues, everything is order. Here's how to dial in the 60th Between what wherein we have been writing this today is Bernanke's dream.Assets are high without having to constantly widen stimuli. The opposite scenario can be things of the early 90th 's, when cast from capital bond has caused problems in the debenture market. Wittily vyznievajú also plans pension funds, which dlhopisoch not be enough to yield to change now buy shares. The question is whether to shares equally well understood as dlhopisom and how they will behave in the first 5 to 10% correction in Action.

A key question is how much can withstand up to date, merchant greed and endlessly optimistic outlook? If you dwell in the U.S., yesterday we saw the first reaction of consumers to the first consolidation measures the U.S. government. Higher taxes = less consumer trust. The response of the shares? They ignored it. Even increased the expectation of the outcome on Fridays consumer confidence by the University of Michigan.Today we see the data of the labor market, job creation by ADP. Expected to swell 165 thousand., But the most common estimate was 148 thousand. First Quartet and most accurate analysts, or such lesser awaiting the outcome. On its basis (your current očakávaniach), however, expects better creating jobs than in December (nonfarm payrolls). So, if we would have today seen frustration, changed it also to the expectations Fridays nonfarm payrolls.

GDP data for 4Q2012 will be another important publication, the expectations they went down from 1.4% to 1.1%, a month can increase the chances of positive surprises, but it tlmí optimism to the next period. If the government cuts and consumers will have higher taxes, who has infuse the economy on growth 2 3% (with which it is counted for this year), when you have prior fiscal reef growth by 1 whole thing on medzikvartálnej base? GDP investments we save? Or growthstocks? It is remarkable that despite the higher orders, the long-term consumption of goods and an increase in private consumption, we have seen a reduction of vision GDP.

And the third part FOMC. Today, in the new formulation, after the departure Lacker may be expected unanimous vote on the minutes. Backgrounder bland, however, and overall not going to change neočakávame bland dictionary Fed. Computer market with QE3 by the beginning of 2014, and just from this moment should be Diatech great things. However, this is still the future of music, therefore, are grouped mainly on the closest view. And he reads it grows, until something goes wrong. Whereas traders prehltli even weaker consumer confidence, znesú manifest abundance. But today disappoints and the labor market or GDP and FOMC will bring flax doterajšej endorsement policy, we could see the concern about the future.

has increasingly countries which are beginning to be taken into the mouth value of their currencies. For Switzerland, Japan and the euro area (the U.S. and China rather pause) is added to Australia and it is equal to the person his prime minister. It is indeed remarkable, if all the politicians talking about the economy would shortly reflections why their concerns them exchange their silos? While commissioner promotes growth of the euro as a return of confidence in the euro area (although the deficits are out of control again), but shortly after the Euro Group and comments can be expected to Germany, which is not as Exporter of the strongest level of the euro since December 2011, just enthusiastic.

The promotions we see Said prekúpenie market, which smacks of the correction. Historic MAXIMA 1576, however, are in sight and are excessively tempting it so we can let disturb an economy. The correction to the level of 1460 is not less than what it should become, but we need to trigger.Last session the December FOMC seemed good only smaller correction in actions, and would not have joined GDP or labor market volatility could significantly increase.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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