Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  January 30, 2013 17:10:00

Dead on the crown, live in the region

Rate CZK / EUR trades continue in the same spirit as in previous sessions. Activity remains very low, which is reflected in the very quiet exchange rate. Czech koruna against the euro is now trading in a very narrow band of seven cents. The cheapest one euro on the interbank market, bought for 25.60. For lack of new messages kurzotvorných and investors apparently waiting for CNB meeting next week. It has potential to cuckold course, especially if press conference to bring specific comments on current economic developments and the way in which the central bank wants to influence the evolution of the exchange rate. From our own simulations suggest that the CZK / EUR rate slightly above the level of 26.00 CZK / EUR at the end of 2013 could be suitable for CNB. With the weakening of the course so we expect in our baseline scenario.Read more in today published Economic prospects for the Czech Republic

Polish zloty and Hungarian forint weakened slightly today, which to a large extent related to the activity of central banks. While in Hungary has been the board meeting held at the hearing on monetary policy in Poland as well as in the Czech Republic is pending (will be held next Wednesday). Despite yesterday's interest rate cut NBH market continues to price in an intended release of monetary conditions by an additional 50 bp in the next six months. In Poland, the consensus also indicates a decrease in rates, which supports a series of bad macroeconomic indicators and today's comments Governor M. Belka, who said that the central bank's mid-cycle easing monetary policy.

Above all, the Hungarian events lead to a decrease of the local market rates and yields. In contrast, today was the development in the Czech Republic, quite the opposite. Swap curve along its entire length increased, she followed the development of their euro counterparts. They respond positively to the leading indicators from Europe, while a negative reading on U.S. GDP slowed their rise slightly. It eventually affected the development of Czech and IRS rates. Compared to yesterday's conclusion, however, the curve ends above, moreover, with a steeper slope. On the bond market during today's session was quiet.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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