Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  February 01, 2013 14:33:11

S & P 500 showed the best January rally since 1997, bonds fell, rose oil, the euro continued to strengthen


The main U.S. stock index S & P 500 ended January with an appreciation of 5.2 percent, which is the best result since 1997, when the index within the January rally grew by 6.1%. Then the index for the year reviewed by 31%, which has never failed to imitate either. Index surpassed during the month of December 2007 for the first time since 1500 boundary points and their January rally surpassed most other investment instruments such as bonds, currencies and commodities.
For comparison, the MSCI World All-Country World index rose in January by 4.6%, the major commodity GSCI Total Return index assessed by 4.4%, bonds in January, on average, lost about 0.7% as the U.S. Dollar Index.

Global market capitalization during the January general growth rally increased by 2.6 trillion dollars, mainly due to better than expected corporate results for 4Q12, partially resolving uncertainty aroundAmerica's fiscal cliff, the resumption of economic growth in China and last but not least, thanks to signs of possible improvement in the situation in Europe.

Investors pumped in January in mutual funds active in the capital markets mld.USD around 39, which is more than double the comparable period last year. In the previous 5 years, investors of these funds siphoned funds totaling around 250 mld.USD.

Of 239 companies from the base of the index were 74% full overcame its results for 4Q12 market estimates. Tal happened at the average earnings growth of 10% compared to growth of 1.1% in 3Q12. Best-led financial sector with an average profit growth of 62%.

Within the global MSCI All-Country World the best in January led sectors of finance and health care, with a growth rate of 5.8%. One of the big losers were Apple shares drop by 14%.

From the other world indices in January to excellent results especially Japanese Nikkei 225 with a growth rate of 7.2%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose in January for the eighth month in a row (longest since 1997) and scored another 2.8%.
The Chinese Shanghai Composite improved by 5.1%, the main development MSCI Emerging Markets index improved by 1.3%.

U.S. WTI crude oil price in January increased by 6.2%, thus almost all repudiate 7.1 percent loss from 2012. North Sea Brent gained 4%.
Most of the commodities grown cotton with an increase of 10%.

Euro in January has strengthened against the dollar by 2.9% over the last six months extended its appreciation in this pair already at 11%. Growth after six months in a row at a time was the longest since 2003.
Japanese yen weakened during January, with one exception to all 16 main currencies basket.

U.S. government bonds in January to lose from 1.1% compared to growth of 2.2% for the full year 2012. Well-performing bonds of European peripheral countries led to the appreciation of 12.9% on Greek bonds, Irish grew by 2.2% and Spanish 1.8%.

This year's estimated growth of major U.S. index by about 3% towards 1543 points, which would be about 2% below the historical record 1,565.15 points reached during October 2007. The most optimistic estimate is for this year on the potential growth to above the level of 1600 points.
The dollar index should rise this year, according to estimates from 79.2 to 80.7 points, precious metals index should increase by about 25%, industrial metals then about 16%. About 18% should reclaim cereals.
Yield of 10-year U.S. treasuries should, by 2013 growth to 2.2% compared to 1.98%.

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S&P 500 předvedl nejlepší lednovou rallye od r.1997, dluhopisy propadly, ropa rostla, euro pokračovalo v posilování

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