Currencies  |  February 03, 2013 21:53:55

Monetary tip of week (4.2.2013)

The biggest gain of the monitored pairs acquired last week EUR / JPY with an increase of +2.6%, then USD / JPY +2% and finally EUR / USD +1.4%. On the other side stood the times and cable GBP / USD with a loss of -0.6%.

The reason they were particularly stredajšie and Fridays event. After the FOMC meeting, stredajšom rate remained at nezmenenej level and just did not come to no changes in the current program buy-securities Fedo (QE), amounting to 85 billion USD per month. Of the accompanying FOMC management analysts Only select a few key excerpts: Growth in economic activity in recent months stopped, no such effect was due .. more weather conditions, and other temporary factors. Vzmáhajúcu pointing to the household consumption, business investment and purchases sent home FOMC ultimately a positive expectation.This dictionary, however slight goshawk market on Wednesday failed to put into bigger profits, whereas only a few hours before the FOMC statement were published U.S. 4Q GDP decline of -0.1% versus 3.8% in comparison medziročnom.

Ny most relevant figures last week came on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls for January showed a modest growth of new jobs at 157,000 almost in line with expectations. However, sounded much better review of December's data, which increased the growth of employment of more than 40 000 to 196 of 155 000. The first market reaction was positive, U.S. stock markets, including the risk currencies EUR and GBP for a short time increased. However, big players such situations when announcing NFP benefiting their advantage when a surplus of liquidity utilized to unilateral onset in opposite positions in the direction of U.S. unemployment. This company reported growth of 7.8% to 79% compared medzimesačnom, equal to the opposite sentiment towards a somewhat better NFP data.

New Maxima above 1.37 for EUR / USD is nevertheless arrived. Jazýčkom on Weights were better numbers University of Michigan consumer confidence and U.S. PMI manufacturing. Both numbers have been published about 1 and 1 hour after the main sample data NFP and unemployment. From that moment Growth EUR / USD trading halt until termination. EUR / USD so in the past week has applied a +1.4% gain in 1371 with the high and the Minimoys 1.34133.

Weeks of this key event will be affected by a vote of central banks RBA, BoE and ECB interest sadzbám. Already on Tuesdays starting to RBA Meetings of 04:30. Existing concern about dictionary dovish RBA AUD paralyzed trade with you in the past week. Last meeting of the neighboring RBNZ, which, while maintaining rates in NZ for the 2nd5% came with a dictionary significantly positive in anticipation of recovery in the global economy in 2013, may bring surprises even RBA. Her positive vocabulary odďaľujúci need for further reduction of rates would thus could lead to the strengthening AUD even before it stredajšími numbers štvrtkovej Retail Earnings and unemployment.

Additional disclosure of the vote on interest sadzbám awaits us on a Thursday, and it immediately doubled. The BoE will be 12:00 to 12:45 and the ECB. For both are expected retention rates to nezmenenej at 0.5% and 0.75% BoE ECB. Since the BoE to the results of the vote to give your comment in the minutes, attention will focus on the ECB press conference about 14:30. The most important will be the expectations of the ECB and the eventual team even further to the current stance ECB LTRO program (kvantitatívnemu release).

Needless to forget but also to macroeconomic data, from which we regard as the most important utorkové retail sales in the EU by 11:00 and ISM services from the U.S. at 16:00. The conclusion of the forthcoming week will bring balance of commercial from Germany, the USA and Canada.

Status quo does not change, however. We expect EUR / USD after breaking the 1.35 level has an open path to the fate of GBP 1.4 and i still lies in the results of U.S. and UK macro give. Pessimistic expectations for the U.S. ISM services they give GBP a chance to re-reflection from 1.5670 support back to 1.58. Improved numbers of ISM utorňajšie may use these hopes quickly bury.

Author: Martin Moravčík | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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