Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Markets  |  February 04, 2013 08:20:00

Week of central banks. ECB could cool the current optimism


Favorable leading indicators from Europe to help the common European currency, to further gains. During the past week, against the dollar further improved by more than one percent. Rate USD / EUR and briefly ascended to the level of 1.37, which is almost 15 months maximum.

Before us is a week of meetings of central banks (ECB, BoE, RBA, CBR, NBP, CNB). After the Fed did not come in last week with no great surprise, do not expect even a significant change this week. However, the European Central Bank would be likely to remind us that the leading indicators recorded Although gradual improvement, but the real data are still unfavorable. A question mark hangs over especially GDP growth in the euro area during the last quarter of last year.According to estimates, SG economy should QoQ decline by 0.3 to 0.4%, which is the worst result for the last two years. In addition, recent data point to weak domestic demand and consumption. An example can be surprisingly weak retail sales in Germany. Last but not least, they can discover new wrinkles on the foreheads of central bankers in connection with the present development of the European currency. Its profits are magnified after the last ECB meeting, which left rates unchanged and repurchases of liquidity provided in last year LTRO. Effective exchange rate of euro from the January meeting solidified over 3.5%, which is sufficient to ensure that eased this year's GDP growth in the next three tenths of one percent and inflation 0.2 percentage points.It is thus likely that the ECB will attempt to alleviate the prevailing optimism in the markets and is preparing to begin meeting in March, when it will be available to new macroeconomic forecast. Although our basic scenario is that the ECB has the rates will not move, can not be completely ruled out that speculation on the movement in the coming weeks will rise again.

This week will be held by the European Council (7 and 8 February). The main theme should be the EU budget for the years 2014 and 2020. Although the immediate market reactions to the outcome can not expect too much, negotiations will be particularly interesting from the perspective of the efforts of politicians as quickly as possible to resolve the debt situation. Restoring investor confidence is the key to restore sustained economic growth.In this context, so it is expected that any progress towards fiscal union and bank will have a positive impact on the markets, which could ultimately be more effective than another rate cut by the ECB. Outside the budget negotiations will be interesting whether politicians will discuss the current economic situation and in particular the strength of the common currency.

Due to the recent development of the USD / EUR and upcoming events can be expected to be generally correct current euro gains. Macroeconomic calendar for this week poorer. From Europe, the most noteworthy of the services PMI, German factory orders and industrial production of the major European economies for December. Worse data would only confirm the above said - good prospects, but the current unfavorable situation. It should record the scenario weakening

Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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Týden centrálních bank. ECB by mohla zchladit současný optimismus

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