Research (Česká spořitelna)
Macroeconomics  |  February 04, 2013 09:26:33

Macro outlook for the 6th week - PMI in services, the U.S. industry, meeting center. Banks

Although the data will be published this week quite a lot, but few of them will be important. Perhaps the most interesting will be purchasing managers indices in services. The U.S. ISM awaiting slight decline, but still should remain well in expansion zone. In Europe, it is expected that the PMI remain at higher values ??indicated by preliminary data. Industrial orders in the U.S. should copy a good indication of the development of durable goods orders. In addition to PMI in Europe will be the most interesting pairs of data from Germany - orders in industry and manufacturing. Manufacturing PMI for Germany showed further improvement, however, market expectations are cautious. The figure is also quite volatile, so there is a solid space for surprises.Negative could indicate that Germany begins to suffer from the negative impact of rising euro on exports. ECB meets on Thursday. Since the session can not expect too much - Monetary policy should remain unchanged, the market will be interested in the ECB's view of economic developments and comment or to return funds from the LTRO. In Europe, will follow the policy in Italy (the upcoming election) and Spain (scandal of illegal cash payments).

This week is very busy in the Czech Republic. In terms of the market is the most important meeting of the CNB, which will mainly decide whether to start with foreign exchange interventions against the crown. As we wrote in a recent special, as we will debate interesting, but ultimately to no intervention.Apart from low efficiency by us will play a role slowly improving economic outlook, which shows how the improving German IFO / PMI and PMI Czech (which last week rose to 49 points) as well as the confidence of households / businesses (which has stabilized, albeit at low levels). The data will be the most important retail and industry, both these data are very weak, but mainly due to a much lower number of working days in December 2012 (about 3 less than in December 2011).

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Makro výhled pro 6. týden - PMI ve službách, průmysl USA, zasedání centr. bank

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