Currencies  |  February 05, 2013 13:09:58

Five Days to katarzie Just as the stock rally extending and approaching the historic peak of the American promotions (a 50 60 points on the S & P500) and the escalating tension, exuberance, fears and predictions. Increasingly receiving slot preachers, who slowly each day, subtracts, how many points still lack the new peak. No, not even on New Year's Eve or a contest or sweepstakes. This is a stock index that represents the substance of the economy. As an example, here's a recent mediálnej Hysteria cover premium American financial magazine Barrons, which is thus rejoices in the fact that a year ago predicted growth:

Achieving new obsession manifested in increase in the cost of top shares, when the recent months begins to manifest rozchádzaním share price and profits. Who grows the peak price, profit expectations of decreasing. The price graph green flies, blue profit prospects. Dashed blue overlooks the 1Q2013.

You are still you'll earn 10-year U.S. bonds only up to 2%, while the S & P500 in dividends paid 2.47%. However, shares, however, are beginning to approach the P / E at 15, which is the most since 2010.

That's how much dealers believers growth we saw yesterday. Although U.S. stocks slump was only a little over a 1% (the most since November), German shares fell by more than 2.3%, well most of July. And they are not nedialo nothing groundbreaking, and you strip away the political instability in the periphery, where we've been writing about yesterday. Bond yields began to soar and shares tumble, today we see a partial restoration of confidence and, thanks to better data from German becomes waiting on today's headline (ISM sector nevýrobného USA) pleasant. However, the overall picture is already cracked, contributed to smth even weaker data from yesterday's and today's U.S. retail sales in the euro area.

The question thus reads, Who needs America's traders are waiting for promotions? Raymond James strategist Jeff Saut thinks that we are currently in the typical 17 25 day free rally (the current is over 26), which buys all the good and bad data, you will always find reason to. This rally tend to have weaker 1 3 day, when we see a pullback. Like yesterday. Thereafter, the bulls got tired, zabookujú market gains and dropping to 5 7% correction. Whereas a typical rally lasts 17 25 days, it is very rare that lasts more than 30 days. What will spúšťačom correction, when it was neither GDP nor the Fed nor the labor market? The annual report on the state of the Union. Obama prednesie it next Tuesday and it is very likely that they will be a positive one. Probably will be sold out. And this, as after such shares will maintain Outlets will tell us what will be this year's promotions.

That's what is remarkable is that several experts have taken into the mouth of Obama's comments. Literally on the impending comments by the President of the economy reload with suspicion. Shares have been for Obama enjoyed very good growth (since January 2009), but analysts worry that Obama will say something about taxes, what is to shares will not like it at all. And they are so high, they could respond in panic.

So we have this next to the puzzle dielik eternal debate, or see the start of a new era or a time to correct. The future does not recognize anyone, but if the ponaučíme with the past, we know that when they receive shares in the headlines and the development of the equity indices is also interested in TV commercial (which otherwise dealt more celebrity scandals and disasters), it is time to raise caution. Get used to the tops of the shares does pass from strong hands to weak hands.By the end of January was up 52% ??AAII small investors tuned býčo, which is the most since January 2011.

U.S. stocks should maintain the level of 1495/96, if they want to take včerajšok only as a minor relaxation in growth. If I can not hold it, leads down to the 1480th Who we are over, the path continues to the historical peak. Time for growth, however, is not to waste.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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