Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 05, 2013 16:01:00

Crown before the meeting of the central bank slightly stronger

Regional winner of today's trading day on the foreign exchange market was the Hungarian forint, which can shift to the level of 292 HUF / EUR improved by more than half a percent. Polish zloty today stagnated near the level of 4.18 PLN / EUR, the Czech crown gains were minimal (about the quarter percent), while the rate in the afternoon stabilized just below the surface of 25.65 CZK / EUR.

No significant reaction of the domestic market remained publication December retail sales. The decline in retail sales for December of 5.1% y / y looks at first glance to be very deep, but the expectations of the market was even worse (-5.3% y / y). The result was affected by fewer working days last December compared to the same month in 2011, last year was about three full working days less. If statistics adjusted for this impact, sales declined year on year by only 0.4%.In a monthly comparison, the data look more optimistically, when sales rose by 1.3% (seasonally adjusted). This to a large extent helped very solid Christmas shopping. For all of last year, sales in the automotive segment decreased by 1.1%. Despite the relatively decent December's data but it is very premature to talk about the signs of future improvement, household consumption remains very weak. The current unfavorable situation will probably not change even in the first half of this year, when households will continue to save. Their real disposable income still adversely affect fiscal consolidation mainly due to tax changes. Negatively but also reflected the deteriorating labor market in the context of low nominal wage growth, rising unemployment and uncertainty keeping a job.

Lagging behind the Crown and the zloty for the Hungarian forint is the fact that tomorrow to meet their central bankers meeting in Warsaw and Prague. And both can expect more pressure to ease monetary policy. Key rate of the Polish central bank, according to general expectations should be lowered by 25 bps to 3.75%. CNB policy rate is already at zero technical, central bankers will have to work with the exchange rate.

Highlights will be market participants certainly any comments to the exchange rate development of the CNB. Central bankers about the need weaker koruna, which in the "zero" interest rates takes over the function of the main instruments of monetary policy. Markets now speculate on the level of interest rates, which would be adequate for the central bank to help it meet the inflation target.Any comment that would have indicated a level that would definitely cleared turbid water. Markets so expect a clear signal from the central bank, where the rate CZK / EUR should move and how they intend to achieve this goal. If not, they can have the opposite effect disappointing comments in the development of the crown, which could result in even stronger.

In addition to CNB will undoubtedly interesting morning numbers of industrial, construction and export activities for December, even in light of the future setting of monetary policy through the exchange rate. Expectations are quite pessimistic. As for retail sales, the numbers will be negatively affected by lower annual number of working days.

Slump in December industrial production may even be double-digit. Industrial production since the beginning of last year to November fell by 5.7% cumulatively (SA, WDA). The outlook for the next month is favorable especially for the automotive industry. Downward trend is evident for car registrations in Germany and the EMU as a whole. The Czech foreign balance of the car it does not show too much yet, but eventually a marked deterioration should occur. On the other hand, at least improves the situation with our largest trading partner, which indicate forward-looking indicators of German industry. Our estimates show that the Czech production was flat in December, mom (SA, WDA). Due to the negative effect of a lower number of working days this year for the industry to decline by 10.5%. Adjusted for working days and seasonal industry should be lower by 5.6%.

The lower number of working days and pay the price dynamics of exports and imports. The trade balance has shown a very good performance Q4, which was confirmed in the last few months. In December, we expect that the overall balance mom worsen by CZK 3.4 billion to a surplus of 32.0 billion CZK (SA). Mom deterioration should occur mainly in the balance adjusted for commodities, which in the last three months has seen very strong results. Total balance without seasonal adjustment should end surplus CZK 20.3 billion (an annual improvement of 13.2 billion CZK). Exports in December would have to decline by 5.7% y / y, then imports by 11.9%. The main reason is again particularly negative effect working days.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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