Investor's window  |  February 06, 2013 15:56:14

The S & P 500 just before the peak and then fall?


iPoint.cz Stock markets, stock indices represented by the summary, now attacking their historic highs. The Dow Jones (DJIA), listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), surpassing the first February 2013 psychological level of 14,000 points, which reached its highest level since October 2007. In order to overcome the historically highest value of 7 October 2007 at 14,066 points, thus it lacks just a bit longer. Dow Jones is one of the oldest and therefore the most popular stock indices. Measured production rate of thirty American industrial, media, financial and technological so-called"Blue-chips" - currently the largest and best-known American companies.

The same success as the Dow Jones currently reaches broader American stock index S & P 500 He broke through the end of January 1500 level points. In order to overcome the historical highs of October 2007, must now beat the level 1,570 points. The main reason for the current strengthening not only for U.S. stocks, but almost all risk assets, the expansionary monetary policy of major central banks in the world. The Fed, the central bank the world's largest economy, the U.S. is pumping into the economy 85 billion USD a month. BoJ, the central bank's third largest economy in the world, in its program reproduced committed to $ 1.1 trillion in the Japanese economy by the end of 2013. Since 2014, the BoJ monthly plans to spend 13 trillion yen indefinitely.The central bank in its monetary easing buy bonds, thereby artificially inflate their demand for these securities. As a result, bond prices rise and their yields fall. Investors are forced to seek income elsewhere and move their money into riskier (more profitable) assets. In addition, risk perception is the experience from last year, when threatened eurozone breakup, the "hardlanding Chinese economy" and the fall of the U.S. fiscal cliff, significantly decreased.

When we look at the evolution of the stock index S & P 500 over the longer time perspective, you can notice that in the last 15 years (since 1997), the price index evolves as if in three cycles of time. Meanwhile, we have passed the first two and now we are in the third stage. Both previous cycles lasted 6 years. The first cycle began in 1997 and ended at the end of 2002.Maximum values ??reached in the spring and summer of 2000 at 1,555 points. Subsequently, with the bursting of the Internet bubble level fell to 800 points. The second cycle began in 2003 and ended again after six years at the end of 2008 after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in the U.S.. We are now in the third cycle, which began in 2009. Assuming that the cycle will last as long as the previous two, should the current stage finish around the end of 2014. Now we are at the beginning of the fifth the cycle of the total length of 6 years. Assuming that the period of development and reiterated the third time, should we wait even a small shift upwards to overcome the peak in 2007 and then followed by a rapid fall down. He should catch the end of next year. When compared to the previous two periods, the second reached slightly higher than the first peak (1570 vs.1555 points) but also lower bottom (687 vs. 807 points). Should history repeat itself, we would be able to overcome the peak year of the second cycle of 1570 points and then drop could follow at least the value of the bottom of the first cycle of 800 points.

Weekly chart stock index S & P 500 from 1997 to present


Same cycles, although not as symmetric, we can find a short-stock index Dow Jones.

Weekly chart stock index Dow Jones from 1997 to present

Michala Moravcová

Michala Moravcová

Vystudovala Vysokou školu ekonomickou v Praze obor Finance. Působila ve společnosti WOOD & Company v Praze, kde pracovala jako trader na akciových trzích. Specializovala se zejména na trhy střední a východní Evropy. Momentálně pracuje jako analytička finančních trhů ve společnosti Bossa. Součástí její práce je analýza domácí i zahraniční makroekonomické situace a její vliv na finanční trhy, zejména na forex. Věnuje se ekonomickému vzdělávaní veřejnosti a publikaci ekonomických článků.

Logo BossaSpolečnost BOSSA je stabilním obchodníkem s cennými papíry, který se v evropském hospodářském prostoru pohybuje již 17 let. Za dobu své existence se dočkala mnohých ocenění. Např. časopisem Forbes byla několikrát označena za brokera roku a to zejména na svém domácím - polském trhu. Od roku 2012 vstupuje také na trh český, kde může své klienty oslovit obchodní platformou Metatrader 4 pro PC i mobilní zařízení, kamennou pobočkou v centru Prahy, technickou podporou i zpravodajstvím v českém jazyce, stejně tak strukturovaným systémem bezplatného vzdělávání, které zajišťuje tým zkušených odborníků i mnohaletých traderů.

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