Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 06, 2013 16:02:59

Comments CNB decision - is that the signals savers, kontraintervence


Czech National Bank today at its regular meeting decided to maintain interest rates. Continues a series of extremely low interest rates, which are the so-called technical zero. In order for any rate increase is not in any way point. Theory comes into the opposite, ie a shift to absolute zero or negative. There, however, the bank probably does not release, because the reaction of consumers in this unpredictable. First, it would mean further reductions in interest rates on savings, as well as current accounts. People would then be able to interpret the situation in two ways - by desirable that savings is not worth now, and would rather spend the money, or that money is hard to add value and save even more.Since the Czech consumers genuine pessimist, the second option may be true. Consumers need to infuse positivity into the veins, to get confidence in the future development of the economy, the ability to believe in the Czech economy and not be so pessimistic. And it is not negative rates.

Ing. Michal Kozub
Analyst
Home Credit as

Board ČN as expected left its key repo rate to "technical" zero, as almost everyone expected. At the same time, however, the Czech economy has worsened outlook for this year. Place a GDP growth of 0.2 percent is now expected to decline by 0.3 percent (forecast Patrie is minus 0.6 percent). However, next year should come recovery and GDP should grow by 2.1 percent (to 2.0% forecast). Inflation should be in the forecast horizon, ie in the first half of next year, around 1.7%.

The main focus, however, was one of the words of the exchange rate, what would be the most likely tools for any further easing of monetary policy. It continues.According to my model reaction function CNB (or if you prefer the Taylor rule) the current state of the Czech economy and its outlook corresponds repo rate at minus 0.25 percent. However, the CNB Governor Miroslav Singer said the depreciation of the koruna in recent times have been unleashed monetary conditions and reduce the need for intervention by monetary policy. Foreign exchange market somewhat taken aback by these words, and crown them strengthened from 25.75 under 25.40 EUR / CZK. Many people may interpret that above the 25.50 EUR / CZK Czech National Bank's direct intervention in the foreign exchange market is unlikely.

At current projections of the Czech economy, it is likely that by the middle of next year, interest rates will stay at the current record low levels.

David Marek, Patria Finance

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