Research (Česká spořitelna)
Macroeconomics  |  February 07, 2013 08:36:34

CNB has released a new proznózu - this year GDP will fall by 0.3% next year will grow by 2.1%


Zasednutí CNB was not a surprise for us, the market does. CNB issued a new forecast, which is similar to our forecast of January - CNB waiting growth -0.3% y / y this year and +2.1% y / y in 2014. CNB said the new forecast is still consistent with a (slightly) more relaxed monetary conditions, but that the economy is close to the border, where it's probably not needed. The governor also said that the crown releases monetary conditions and that the release is less urgent than before. All this, together with the expectations of the CNB on the crown (average 25.30 this year) and not one word of interventions pushed on the market, which was considerably long. A run was not as long - up to enhance duck 25.35 (40 cents, about 1.5%).We recommend profit lock in our recent investment recommendations EURCZK short (target is 25.30 but why risk it further). In the following months, the CNB will wait to see if the leading indicators translate into better macro and maintain gum between 25.20 to 25.7. Cathy about 25.30 / 25.20 try under 25.20 but I would expect the CNB's opinion. The question is whether this time it will take the market seriously.

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ČNB vydala novou proznózu - letos HDP poklesne o 0,3%, příští rok poroste o 2,1%

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