Research (Conseq)
Macroeconomics  |  February 07, 2013 14:05:15

The slow return of consumer confidence?


Household consumption, the most important component of GDP, is showing signs of slight improvement. Retail sales, including sales of cars showing how households are spending rose in December compared to November of 1.3% (seasonally adjusted).

At higher profits traders should of course share your Christmas shopping and is therefore a need to be compared also with the same period last year. Year on year decline of 5.1%. This figure was affected by fewer working days in December 2012 compared to the same month in 2011. Most significant is the different number of working days reflected in sales and repair of motor vehicles without adjustment fell by 11.1%. If statistics adjusted for this effect, the decline is considerably lower, only 0.4%. Due to the fact that for the full year 2012 decreased retail sales rose more (-1.1%), purporting December's numbers slightly optimistic. This fact might at Wednesday's meeting of the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank to play a role as an argument against execution of foreign exchange interventions in favor of the weakening of the Czech koruna.

So far, however, is only the first signs of improvement in consumer confidence, respectively. stopping the slow decline in retail sales. The real increase in household consumption we have to wait until the second half of the year, when we expect a gradual recovery in domestic demand.

 

David Kufa,

Investment Manager

Conseq Investment Management, Inc.

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