World markets  |  February 07, 2013 17:01:50

In the markets, although optimism reigns, on the ground, but was cautious / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 4th week Second 2,013


After a very good start to the new year stock indexes in February, yet it seems to choose a time-out. The S & P 500 settled above the 1,500 points and the Dow Jones after many years again attacks the limit of 14 000 points, but this also means that historical maximum of these two closely watched benchmark is basically within reach.

About how big these days there is market optimism, but does not indicate only the value of stock market indices. Yields on ten-year U.S. government bonds after a long time began to grow again and are currently attacking the two percent threshold, as investors slowly begin to leave the safe haven and go for a higher yield.Price of precious metals has stagnated despite a weakening dollar, implied volatility is the lowest since 2007, and what's more, the markets are starting to come back after a long time too small investors when stock funds in January in the U.S. for the first time since 2011 marked the first month in which flowed into them more capital than investors have managed to choose in a given month.

But it is not just the total absence of risk, general optimism and the return of retail investors, who tend to come late in the day, what should serve as sufficient warning to all? If we look at is the activity of insiders, ie owners of companies traded on the stock exchange and managers, we find that they are now starting to dispose of its shares in bulk. For example, according to a report today Argus Research insiders purchased for each share sold nine falls.

A debt crisis, which six months ago have raged on the bond market? Have managed to sweep under the carpet thanks to the next, already několikátému, flooding the financial markets with fresh liquidity. Intoxication of cheap money so it seems once again deployed to investors rose-colored glasses, and despite the general lethargy is perhaps currently in place the best possible caution.

Jaroslav Brychta, X-Trade Brokers

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, in the week of 4 Second 2013th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
First Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 016,81
1 009,80
1,002
ˇ -0.69
990-1 040
2
3
Dow Jones (U.S.)
14 009,79
13 886,60
13925
ˇ -0.88
13620 - 14048
1
4
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 179,10
3 161,00
3,175
ˇ -0.57
3119 - 3 200
2
3
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 347,20
6 245,60
6,250
ˇ -1.60
6160 - 6346
0
5
DAX (Germany)
7 833,39
7 681,60
7,713
ˇ -1.94
7450 - 7820
0
5
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
11 191,34
11 135,60
11108
ˇ -0.50
10900 - 11520
1
4


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
First Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 016,81
1 036,80
1,034
^ 1.97
1010 - 1060
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
14 009,79
14 076,60
14200
^ 0.48
13350 - 14398
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 179,10
3 213,40
3,263
^ 1.08
3 050 - 3 300
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 347,20
6 351,80
6,427
^ 0.07
6040 - 6504
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 833,39
7 794,20
7,900
ˇ -0.50
7240 - 8050
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
11 191,34
11 365,00
11250
^ 1.55
11200 - 11806
5
0

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file.Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Na trzích sice vládne optimismus, na místě by ale byla obezřetnost / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 4. 2. 2013

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