Markets  |  February 08, 2013 08:37:00

How bright are really Chinese data?

Chinese export and import in the first month of this year has risen sharply. Exporting from the second largest economy in the world grew by 25 percent compared with the previous year. Import rose by as much as 28.8 percent. These results represent a huge surplus in the trade balance of $ 29.2 billion.

Chinese exports in January year on year increased to 14.5 percent of the U.S. and the EU by 5.2 percent. Export to neighboring economies within the ASEAN jumped a whopping 48.6 percent compared to January 2012, which is $ 20.1 billion.

Import from USA to China in January year on year achieved incredible growth by 49.7 percent, the EU has also risen by 20.7 percent and ASEAN countries could import by 36.5 percent more.The greatest growth, however, reached Taiwan, when improved by 74.8 percent.

Let us not, however, infatuated at first sight dazzling Chinese the January data. Question is, how much is influenced by Chinese New Year, which this year celebrated in February and not in January, as is customary. Holidays just shift could cause the importers in January imported into China more to be stocked before the celebration. The same could be doing and exporters, who sent orders sooner than they should because of holidays late. Export to the U.S. in January fell by 5.9 percent compared to December, and in Europe by 5.1 percent.

China is the experience of the crisis in the U.S. and Europe learn more autonomy and less dependence on foreign demand. For this reason, any hint of stronger domestic consumption for the local economy optimistic.On the other hand, can not forget the ongoing extensive government incentives that are likely to cause rising domestic consumption. Asked about is what happens to domestic demand, when incentives expire.

Inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) in January rose by 2 percent compared to January 2012. For example, food prices in China increased year on year by 2.9 percent. Economists were expecting even higher inflation around 2.1 percent, since December last year, inflation rose by 2.5 percent compared to December 2011.

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