Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  February 08, 2013 10:29:53

Yesterday the ECB and the Eurodollar break the trend? Even though Mario Draghi had a lot unsaid, could EURUSD currency pair have their local maxima in a row. Confirmation of trend reversal would be breaking the boundaries of 1.3300.

Bottom line: it was a relatively dovish Mr Mario Draghi. Far more, however, for what was said between the lines, rather than because of what was said directly.Yes, generally it might seem that the ECB president Draghi suggested that the rate of inflation you rather fall below two per cent target, and that there are risks of further decline in the economy, even though it seemed to stabilize at a low level. Among the anti-inflationary risks were mentioned and the euro. And the mere mention of which sent the euro against the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and British pound.

Although Draghi mentioned exchange rate, and surprisingly all the other comments made ??it clear that he had no interest in engaging in "currency wars" that broke out last steps the Bank of Japan.To a direct question on this topic is Draghi said that exchange rate changes throughout the world are just a side effect of monetary and other policies, and not the result of direct intention to weaken the currency. Well, sure ... Also avoided the direct question of current French President Holland reservations to euro exchange rate.

Draghi spoke evasively again, especially as regards the "fundamental agreement" between the Irish Government and the European Central Bank to liquidate Anglo Irish Bank. Debt to bail out the Irish banking sector would be shifted onto the shoulders of the state. Previously agreed aid because the local banks was much less favorable than in the case of later rescues European banks. And just moving the debt to the Irish state suggests that the ECB starts turning a blind taps with money.In recent days, extra strong euro widened spread between Spanish and Italian bonds and the upcoming Italian elections is starting to show even more uncertainty.

Meanwhile, as Mario Draghi spoke of the eurozone, commented Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed is pushing aggressively dovish strategy, the issue of quantitative easing. According to him, this program is the U.S. central bank could end up in a time when the nation's unemployment rate goes below seven percent. What are you actually kidding? It's worth further investigation.

It is too early to talk about the end of the rally on the currency pair EURUSD. But the last ECB meeting increased this likelihood. In our proof will break this trend, the daily closing value below 1.3300. Provided, however, that the bond market remained stable. A key signal to confirm the weakening of the euro will monitor currency pair EURJPY. In the short-term is to consolidate this area of ??500-600 pips if global bond yields fall back to the old lower values.


Level of 1.3400 was important on the way up and the euro break would help weaken the growing trend. Close below 1.3300 with offers another potential weakness. Another clue could be the next frontier intersection support and rising trend line at 1.3170.

John J. Hardy, currency strategist, Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na:

Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0

Last news from the section Currencies:

Pá 22:17  Koruna dnes k pohybu neměla motivaci (Komentář) Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Pá 14:28  Kurzovní lístek ČNB na pátek 17.08.2018 Redakce (

Read also:

June 30, 2016Zlomilo zlato medvědí trend? STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
April 06, 2016Jen před Zápisem Fedu: hrozba zlomu trendu HighSky (HighSky)

Včerejší ECB a zlom trendu na eurodolaru?

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.

Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2018, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688