Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 08, 2013 10:33:10

Comments unemployment - recession takes its toll

The share of unemployed in the total population aged 15-64 years in ice increased to 8.0 percent. Number of persons registered by labor offices rose to 586,000. Never in the modern history of the Czech economy was not higher. Since January, the changed indicator, which measures unemployment if, however, used traditional registered unemployment rate used so far, reached the value of 10.1 percent. Again a record high enrollment.

January is the month with a strong negative seasonality. As the temperature decreases in construction work. In addition, however, increasingly reflected the worsening situation in the economy. It has been one year and a half and the recession still suffers painful toll on the labor market. Seasonally adjusted unemployment since předloňského autumn gradually rises. In January, however, came quite a significant jump up (according to my calculations, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 9.08 to 9.40 percent). The decline in domestic and foreign orders forcing companies to cut costs and staff. At the same time decreasing the number of vacancies. In January there were only less than 34 thousand., From at least February 2011. Per vacancy now accounts for 17.3 job seekers.

Given that the economy is not enough to recover from a recession in 2009 and unemployment has never fallen to pre-crisis value, originally became part of long-term unemployment cyclical unemployment, a structural problem. Until now, the next rising wave of layoffs. The result was the highest unemployment rate since 1989. Historically, the highest unemployment rate was registered during the Great Depression in 1933. Then it was 738 thousand out of work. persons and the unemployment rate exceeded 21 percent.

In February, we can expect further modest increase in unemployment. For the whole of this year, I expect the share of the unemployed population, on average, 7.6 percent. Last year, this indicator stood at an average of 6.8 percent.

David Marek, Patria Finance

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