Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  February 08, 2013 16:57:00

Data for GDP for Q4 12 should show the continuing recession in the Czech economy


The past week has brought significant gains for the crown. Czech currency reacted to the press conference, the CNB Governor Miroslav Singer where he introduced the new forecast and said that the need for further easing of monetary policy (through the exchange rate) is less urgent. Based on a series of bad domestic economic data from the last time that pointed to inflationary tendencies in the economy, markets expected more comments aimed at maintaining a weaker koruna. Words governor and started a strengthening of the Czech currency, which during Wednesday and Thursday scored over one and a half percent. While Wednesday's meeting of the CNB crown recorded the weakest level in seven months - 25.75 CZK / EUR, Thursday and Friday even briefly attacked the 25.20 level.

The question is whether this will strengthen the central bankers to tolerate. Course around 25.50 CZK / EUR would probably suit more when it shows for Q1 13 and new CNB forecast. Course, however, will affect the CNB difficult for investors due to the change in central bank policy. Friday will definitely be an interesting record of the board meeting, which could reveal the opinions of other central bankers on monetary policy. Will there also current reports on inflation, which illustrates in detail a new forecast.

Next week will also be published interesting data out of the economy, especially Thursday's preliminary GDP estimate for Q4 12 and Monday January inflation.Like every year January is linked to the increase in the price level due to the change in regulated prices (rent, electricity, water and sewerage, gas, heat, etc. with the impact of the January CPI mom growth of 0.47 percentage points). This year, the price development is also affected by changes in indirect taxes, whose financial impact on inflation estimate of 0.95 percentage points (an increase in VAT rates by 1 percentage point impact of 0.87 percentage points and an increase in excise duty on cigarettes). A major uncertainty is the moment to what extent the sales in January reduced margins. Adjusted for tax changes would be in January in addition to regulated prices, food prices would rise by 1.2% m / m (+0.6% SA), fuel prices by 0.1% and the adjusted prices by 0.1% (-0 , 1% SA). Overall, prices should increase by 1.6% mom, annual growth would then be lowered from December's 2.4% to 2.2%.

GDP should in the last quarter of the year fall by 0.1% QoQ (-1.4% yoy). A slight positive contribution to the dynamics QoQ expect household consumption. Pronounced drop in contrast is seen in fixed investment. Another positive contribution should occur for net exports, but this will be offset by negative developments in inventories. In terms of added value offers decreased apparently in industry and agriculture, services and construction contrary, according to our estimates, contributed positively. Next week, however, we see only a preliminary estimate without structure. CNB expects the same decline in GDP as we do - any disappointment could again force central bankers to comments against the crown.

Author: Marek Dřímal

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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Data pro HDP za Q4 12 by měla ukázat na pokračující recesi v české ekonomice

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