Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 11, 2013 09:41:03

Comments for inflation - after another year below 2% which is below the long-term goal of the CNB

Inflation around near the levels of 2% should continue over the coming months. The risk of higher inflation as food prices through price increases for agricultural commodities.

Inflation and at the beginning of this year, further slowing. In comparison with the previous month, while prices rose by 1.3%, but in annual terms, the rate of inflation increased by only 1.9%. The annual price growth below 2% was recorded last while in September of the preceding year.

A sudden mom prices earlier this year was mainly due to increases in indirect taxes and no regular adjustment of regulated prices upwards. On the other hand, reduction of price levels influenced post-Christmas sales of clothing, footwear and equipment for house and garden.

Overall, the January inflation surprised by lower values ??when the person I was expecting a slightly higher rise in prices, both mom and the year. Lower inflation suggests that the company is likely to reduce margins. Inflation around near the levels of 2% should continue over the coming months. The risk of higher inflation as food prices through price increases for agricultural commodities.

Miroslav Novak

Consumer price index in January rose 1.3 percent. Contributed to this change in particular, both VAT rates, increases in administered prices, rising food prices and seasonally higher recreation.

At the beginning of this year were shifted both rates of VAT and the change has contributed to an increase in the consumer price index by 0.8 percent. Last year's shift effect reduced VAT rate from 10 to 14 percent, however, was stronger when inflation increased by 1.1 percentage points.

Like every year, this time in January jumped up the prices of housing and related services. The price of electricity increased by 3.3 percent. Although electricity prices in the stock markets fall, households must pay more due to the contribution to the RES. Full household of 2.0 percent more expensive, heat and hot water by 3.6 percent, 6.6 percent for water and sewage rates by 6.9 percent. After the end of regulation with actual rentals increased by only 0.9 percent.

In January and usually more expensive food. N guilt is mainly seasonal rise in prices of fruit and vegetables. These are also joined by higher prices of milk and dairy products, eggs and pastries.

Seasonality is reflected in the prices of recreation that during the ski season increased by 1.2 percent. On the contrary, post-Christmas sales collide price clothing and footwear by 3.8 percent.

Headline inflation for the first time after 16 months fell below two percent, which is the target value for the CNB. Monetary policy inflation is below one percent. Core inflation even negative (for more than three and a half years!) And in addition deflation deepens again.

This year, inflation is expected to be in the range 1-2 per cent and core inflation is likely to remain below zero.This outlook is accompanied by a prognosis of continued recession, leading to the need for further monetary policy easing. If the CNB could further reduce interest rates, should its key repo rate to drop to minus 0.35 percent, results from my model reaction of the central bank, or monetary conditions to release the use of intervention in the foreign exchange market.

David Marek, Patria Finance

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