STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
Markets  |  February 11, 2013 10:14:59

Short-term fundamental outlook

Friday's decline in exports and imports of Germany in December, along with the expected growth of CPI in China and better than expected U.S. trade balance did not have the power to influence the development of stock market indices. As for information only can be described in a report on the agreement on the EU budget for the years 2014 to 2020. From the perspective of the next few weeks we can expect greater volatility in markets with solutions approaching deadline expenditure side of the U.S. budget and thus increase or cancellation debt ceiling ibid. To recap, policymakeři must reach a consensus by the end of February, otherwise there is (yet again) automatic activation of the fiscal cliff, a drastic restrictive expenditure measures. The main motive USA last weeks and months, that quantitative easing in the world obviously for some time retreats into the background.Markets are increasingly resistant to speculation about his termination, which is subsequently denied by worse macroeconomic indicators to date again after easing conditions for stopping (last 7% inflation target). In terms of monetary stimulus, Europe is much less expansive, mainly due to a half percentage points above the base interest rate (0.75% versus 0.25% in the USA). Money supply in the market and reduced the unexpected return of the funds of the bank, drawn in rímci LTRO operation. Along with expressing Mario Draghi low risk of inflation due to the strong euro can even speculate about possible further printing banknotes.
Fundamental developments in the U.S. and Europe for the next few weeks rather positive for equity markets negatively, when technical view of the world, however, such indexes canthe weekly candles of the S & P 500 seen growing escalation Swing and price movements in highly overbought zone. Another technical limit, however, is "to" value around the 1560th The correction last week could mean another chance for shopping. It is interesting to watch fold higher liquidity on derivatives last days on the main continental indices DAX and CAC.

Mojmír Boček

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